Vannes v Dijon
Vannes lie outside the relegation places on goal difference and realistically need a win to keep their survival hopes alive. They have a tricky game next weekend, so will be hoping to get a good result here tonight. They have put in good performances in their last two games to boost their hopes of remaining in the division, but need another one tonight.
Dijon are mathematically not safe, but to all extents and purposes, they will be. They are missing one of their first-choice central defenders, as well as their keeper, and their backup keeper is somewhat suspect. Whilst their away record isn’t too bad, they have lost the last two games and have little to play for this season.
Vannes need the points more than their opponents, and have found a little bit of form recently. It won’t be easy, which is why I am taking a little bit of cover for the draw.
Bet: Vannes -0.25AH @ 1.7
Final Result: Vannes 1 - 0 Dijon
Strasbourg v Nîmes
After a poor run of form, Strasbourg find themselves only 3 points ahead of the relegation zone. Their problem has been away from home, where they haven’t won, but they have been fairly solid at home this year. They don’t have any major injury concerns ahead of this game.
Nîmes looked like they may challenge for promotion until a run of only 2 wins in 12 games. They have drawn 4 of their last 5 away game 0-0, but they know that they need to attack more if they are to have any chance of grabbing a promotion spot.
With the other relegation contenders facing tricky games, Strasbourg will know that they have a chance to secure their spot in the division against a team that has gone off the boil in the past month or so.
Bet: Strasbourg -0.5AH @ 1.82
Final Result: Strasbourg 1 - 1 Nîmes
Roda v Willem II
Roda have been in excellent form at home recently, winning 6 of their last 7 games, scoring at least 2 goals in each of those matches. They need a win to give themselves any hope of securing a place in the European playoffs and will be going all out for a big win.
Willem II have been nothing short of terrible away from home this season, with 15 defeats from 16 games. They have already qualified for the relegation playoff, so have nothing to play for in this game and will not want any injuries or cards ahead of that playoff.
Roda should win this game comfortably given their need of the three points. They should come out of the blocks quickly to try and secure the win early on.
Bet: Roda -1.5AH @ 1.65
Bet: Roda HT/FT @ 1.66
NEC v Ajax
With only 1 win in their last 10 games and no home win in 4, NEC lie in mid-table with absolutely nothing to play for whatsoever in this game, except for pride.
On the other hand, Ajax have made a dramatic late charge for the title with 13 straight league victories, scoring 46 and only conceding 2 goals in that period. They have to win and hope that Twente slip up against NAC Breda. Ajax have the easier game and will look to grab an early lead to put the pressure on Twente.
It would be a huge shock were Ajax not to win this and they will look to make a lightning quick start to put the pressure on the less experienced Twente side.
Bet: Ajax HT/FT @ 1.5
Grimsby v Barnet
Following Barnet’s defeat at Accrington, this match has become huge with respect to the relegation battle in League 2. Grimsby have nothing to lose in this game, since they know that only a win will be enough. They lie 4 points behind Barnet with 2 games left of the season and they have strung together 3 wins in their last 5 games.
Barnet have lost 5 on the bounce to drop perilously close to the drop. They have the worst away record in the division and goals have been difficult to find recently, with main striker, Paul Furlong, showing his age.
Grimsby have to win to keep any hopes of survival alive and they should be able to manage this against an out-of-form Barnet side.
Bet: Grimsby to win @ 2.0
Final Result: Grimsby 2 - 0 Barnet
MK Dons v Brighton
The MK Dons have collapsed in the second half of the season and are without a win in 9 games. They will be without 12 first team regulars through injury and suspension, having had 3 men sent off last weekend. They are set to give starts to 3 teenagers, including a striker who has been recalled from his loan spell at Forest Green.
Brighton are finishing well with 5 wins in their last 9 games and have only lost 2 of their last 13 games away from home. They play with a lot of pace and would be higher up the table if they had a more clinical striker to take the chances they create.
MK Dons cannot wait for this season to end, whist Brighton are finishing strongly, despite having nothing to play for.
Bet: Brighton -0.25AH @ 1.82
Final Result: MK Dons 0 - 0 Brighton
Blackpool v Bristol City
Blackpool squeezed into the final playoff place last weekend following a victory at already relegated Peterborough. They have won 6 of their last 7 games, only losing to champions Newcastle during that period. They are also unbeaten in 7 games at home. They know their fate is in their own hands, but must make sure of the win, otherwise Swansea could nip in and cost them a chance at the Premiership.
Bristol City are in good form with 5 wins in their last 7 games, although they have only won 3 of their previous 13 away from home. They have only lost 1 of their last 10 against Blackpool and considering Bristol City’s hatred of Blackpool manager Ian Holloway, they would love to lost them a playoff place.
Blackpool need to win this and hopefully the added motivation should give them the desire to go ahead and grab the 3 points.
Bet: Blackpool to win @ 1.5
Friday 30 April 2010
Friday 23 April 2010
Weekend Betting Tips
Benfica v Olhanense & Vitoria Setubal v Porto
Benfica have won eight consecutive matches as they march toward the title. Unbeaten in the league since a 2-0 defeat at Braga way back in October, they know that one more win will virtually guarantee them the championship. Although they drew at Olhanense back in December, they should have the motivation to put a few past the relegation-threatened side, and I expect them to win this fairly comfortably.
Porto are on a run of five straight league wins as they look to try and catch Braga in second place and reach the Champions League, particularly with Braga having a tricky away match on Sunday. Setubal had gone five games without defeat before last weekend’s defeat to Sporting, and they now lie four points clear of relegation. They battled hard at Sporting last weekend, but their lack of quality showed, and this should again be the case tomorrow.
Bet: Benfica & Porto both to win @ 1.64
Final Results: Benfica 5 - 0 Olhanense & Vitoria Setubal 2 - 5 Porto
Valencia v Deportivo
Valencia are still hanging on in third place in La Liga. Away from home, they have lost five straight games and are without a win since January. However, at home, they have only lost to Real Madrid this season, and are on a run of six wins in the last seven games. They know this is a must win game, with Mallorca and Sevilla lurking only four points back. They are beginning to get a few of their defenders back from injuries and with the likes of Villa, Silva and Mata in attack, they are always a threat.
Deportivo are lying mid-table, but without a win in eight games. They haven’t won away from home in the league since November, although did win at the Mestalla in the Copa del Rey, back in January. They will be without Andres Guardado, and both their central defenders, which will be a problem against the attacking threat of Valencia.
Bet: Valencia -1AH @ 1.75
Final Result: Valencia 1 - 0 Deportivo
Bochum v Stuttgart
Bochum are plummeting toward the drop zone, with no win in their last nine games. They had a disappointing defeat last week against Koln, showing little fight, creativity, and not even getting a shot in until seven minutes from time. The coach does not seem to know how he wants the team to play, and it shows.
Stuttgart are still within reach of the Champions League, although a Europa League place is more likely. They have won five straight games as they launch a late charge, having won 11 of 14 games since Christian Gross took over. Hleb and Khedira are both back in the starting line-up for Stuttgart, which will be a boost.
Bet: Stuttgart to win @ 1.83
Final Result: Bochum 0 - 2 Stuttgart
Palermo v AC Milan
Palermo are battling with Sampdoria for the final Champions League place, and with Sampdoria away to Roma on Sunday, they’ll fancy their chances to go level on points. They have won 10 out of their last 11 home games, and will fancy their chances against 3rd placed Milan.
Milan are on a run of 1 win in 6 games, losing to an injury-time header last week at Sampdoria. They have admitted that they have nothing left to play for this season and have plenty of players missing. Pato, Nesta, Ambrosini, Boriello, Bonera, Flamini, Favalli, Kaladze and Beckham are all out, and fullback, Massimo Oddo, is expected to partner Thiago Silva at the back. They rely a lot on Ronaldinho, but his form is missing at the moment.
Bet: Palermo to win @ 1.95
Final Result : Palermo 3 - 1 AC Milan
Ajax v Feyernoord
This is the first leg of the Dutch Cup Final. Ajax booked their place with an emphatic 6-0 victory over Go Ahead Eagles, and have scored a remarkable 102 goals in only 33 league games this season. They have won 13 straight games in the league, since a 1-1 draw with Feyernoord and have scored 3 or more goals in 10 of those games. They will be hoping to settle this final in the first leg.
Feyernoord lost last time out against Twente, but before that had been unbeaten since early February. They appeared to take things easy against Twente in preparation for this game, but the loss in momentum could be crucial. Their defence will have to be on top form to give them anything to play for in the second leg.
Bet: Ajax -1AH @ 2.08
Final Result: Ajax 2 - 0 Feyernoord
Arsenal v Manchester City
Arsenal’s title hopes ended after a dramatic defeat at Wigan last weekend. They are now glancing over their shoulders at Spurs and City, and have lost three straight games in all competitions, albeit all away from home. They have won 14 out of 17 at the Emirates, losing only to Chelsea and Manchester United this season. However, they are still without Manuel Almunia, meaning the erratic Lukas Fabianski is likely to start. Fabregas, Gallas, Vermuelen, Arshavin and Ramsey are amongst the other players missing, although Alex Song and Eduardo are expected to return.
Manchester City’s last gasp defeat in the derby last weekend dropped them out of the top 4, but they will be targeting three points here. With the likes of Tevez, Bellamy and former Arsenal striker, Emmanuel Adebayor up front, they will be a danger, and a lot will depend on whether Toure and Kompany can keep the Arsenal strikers quiet. Gareth Barry and Nigel de Jong will be tasked with neutralising the creative threat of Samir Nasri, but City will be hopeful of pulling off an upset.
Bet: Manchester City DNB @ 2.62
Final Result: Arsenal 0 - 0 Manchester City
Benfica have won eight consecutive matches as they march toward the title. Unbeaten in the league since a 2-0 defeat at Braga way back in October, they know that one more win will virtually guarantee them the championship. Although they drew at Olhanense back in December, they should have the motivation to put a few past the relegation-threatened side, and I expect them to win this fairly comfortably.
Porto are on a run of five straight league wins as they look to try and catch Braga in second place and reach the Champions League, particularly with Braga having a tricky away match on Sunday. Setubal had gone five games without defeat before last weekend’s defeat to Sporting, and they now lie four points clear of relegation. They battled hard at Sporting last weekend, but their lack of quality showed, and this should again be the case tomorrow.
Bet: Benfica & Porto both to win @ 1.64
Final Results: Benfica 5 - 0 Olhanense & Vitoria Setubal 2 - 5 Porto
Valencia v Deportivo
Valencia are still hanging on in third place in La Liga. Away from home, they have lost five straight games and are without a win since January. However, at home, they have only lost to Real Madrid this season, and are on a run of six wins in the last seven games. They know this is a must win game, with Mallorca and Sevilla lurking only four points back. They are beginning to get a few of their defenders back from injuries and with the likes of Villa, Silva and Mata in attack, they are always a threat.
Deportivo are lying mid-table, but without a win in eight games. They haven’t won away from home in the league since November, although did win at the Mestalla in the Copa del Rey, back in January. They will be without Andres Guardado, and both their central defenders, which will be a problem against the attacking threat of Valencia.
Bet: Valencia -1AH @ 1.75
Final Result: Valencia 1 - 0 Deportivo
Bochum v Stuttgart
Bochum are plummeting toward the drop zone, with no win in their last nine games. They had a disappointing defeat last week against Koln, showing little fight, creativity, and not even getting a shot in until seven minutes from time. The coach does not seem to know how he wants the team to play, and it shows.
Stuttgart are still within reach of the Champions League, although a Europa League place is more likely. They have won five straight games as they launch a late charge, having won 11 of 14 games since Christian Gross took over. Hleb and Khedira are both back in the starting line-up for Stuttgart, which will be a boost.
Bet: Stuttgart to win @ 1.83
Final Result: Bochum 0 - 2 Stuttgart
Palermo v AC Milan
Palermo are battling with Sampdoria for the final Champions League place, and with Sampdoria away to Roma on Sunday, they’ll fancy their chances to go level on points. They have won 10 out of their last 11 home games, and will fancy their chances against 3rd placed Milan.
Milan are on a run of 1 win in 6 games, losing to an injury-time header last week at Sampdoria. They have admitted that they have nothing left to play for this season and have plenty of players missing. Pato, Nesta, Ambrosini, Boriello, Bonera, Flamini, Favalli, Kaladze and Beckham are all out, and fullback, Massimo Oddo, is expected to partner Thiago Silva at the back. They rely a lot on Ronaldinho, but his form is missing at the moment.
Bet: Palermo to win @ 1.95
Final Result : Palermo 3 - 1 AC Milan
Ajax v Feyernoord
This is the first leg of the Dutch Cup Final. Ajax booked their place with an emphatic 6-0 victory over Go Ahead Eagles, and have scored a remarkable 102 goals in only 33 league games this season. They have won 13 straight games in the league, since a 1-1 draw with Feyernoord and have scored 3 or more goals in 10 of those games. They will be hoping to settle this final in the first leg.
Feyernoord lost last time out against Twente, but before that had been unbeaten since early February. They appeared to take things easy against Twente in preparation for this game, but the loss in momentum could be crucial. Their defence will have to be on top form to give them anything to play for in the second leg.
Bet: Ajax -1AH @ 2.08
Final Result: Ajax 2 - 0 Feyernoord
Arsenal v Manchester City
Arsenal’s title hopes ended after a dramatic defeat at Wigan last weekend. They are now glancing over their shoulders at Spurs and City, and have lost three straight games in all competitions, albeit all away from home. They have won 14 out of 17 at the Emirates, losing only to Chelsea and Manchester United this season. However, they are still without Manuel Almunia, meaning the erratic Lukas Fabianski is likely to start. Fabregas, Gallas, Vermuelen, Arshavin and Ramsey are amongst the other players missing, although Alex Song and Eduardo are expected to return.
Manchester City’s last gasp defeat in the derby last weekend dropped them out of the top 4, but they will be targeting three points here. With the likes of Tevez, Bellamy and former Arsenal striker, Emmanuel Adebayor up front, they will be a danger, and a lot will depend on whether Toure and Kompany can keep the Arsenal strikers quiet. Gareth Barry and Nigel de Jong will be tasked with neutralising the creative threat of Samir Nasri, but City will be hopeful of pulling off an upset.
Bet: Manchester City DNB @ 2.62
Final Result: Arsenal 0 - 0 Manchester City
Thursday 22 April 2010
Finance in Football - Heading for Crisis...
Over the past season, clubs’ finances have come under increasing scrutiny throughout the divisions. From Portsmouth and Manchester United in the Premiership, down through the likes of Cardiff and Southend, Notts County to Chester, there have been increasing instances of clubs struggling under the burden of debt. English fans look enviously toward either the Germany’s 50+1 model of ownership or the fan-ownership style at Barcelona. However, it is not simply the actions of owners that have led clubs into the situation that they currently find themselves in.
This issue has come under major scrutiny this year, but it has been lurking for many years. During the past decade, the economy has been booming. This has meant that it has been very easy to borrow money from banks, and so very easy to finance takeovers in this manner. Furthermore, if you ran into trouble, it would have been very simple to sell it on to the next buyer. However, then the recession hit. Suddenly, borrowing was no longer a simple matter and banks did not want to renegotiate existing loans – they needed their money back. This scared off new buyers, meaning that club owners that had run into trouble could no longer offload the club so easily. The situation with Mike Ashley at Newcastle was an excellent example of this.
In a report looking at the 2007/08 season, UEFA revealed that the combined debt of 18 of the Premiership clubs was just under £3.5bn. This figure does not include the debt of either Portsmouth or West Ham – two clubs that have had financial difficulties recently. This makes the Premiership the most indebted league on the planet, more than four times the figure of the next most indebted league – Spain’s Primera Division. Indeed, the debt held by Manchester United is greater than all 36 Bundesliga clubs combined. These figures begin to give an idea of how heavily Premiership clubs were in debt.
Commercially, the Premiership is by far the most successful league on the planet. It has recently sold the overseas broadcasting rights for 2010-13 for around £1.4bn, following a year after selling the domestic rights for £1.8bn. These figures are staggering and it is little surprise that it is the most indebted league. Debt is generally proportional to income – the most you make, the more banks will allow you to borrow. Being the highest earning league in Europe, we would expect the Premiership to have the highest debt.
Since this report, Premier League debt has actually fallen by around £1.5bn. This is partly due to the lack of availability of further credit, rising asset values, but a major part is the changing approach of clubs and owners. With the upcoming UEFA regulations potentially prohibiting clubs from competing in European competitions if they have outstanding debts, owners have been converting soft loans that they have made to the club into equity. This wipes out the debt that the club owes their owners. This approach has been taken by both Roman Abramovic at Chelsea and Sheikh Mansour at Manchester City.
However, it is important to note that debt is not always bad. So long as you can meet the repayments, then the debt is sustainable, and there are no problems. Arsenal fell into debt in financing the new stadium, but the solid business model that they follow has meant that they are easily able to meet the repayments on the loan without it severely impacting the business as a whole. It would be difficult to argue that there is anything wrong with this.
Over the years, two out of three football league clubs have gone into administration at some point in their history. It has almost become a strategy of football clubs and their owners. The insolvency law in this country makes it relatively easy for companies to write off their debt, paying 10p in the £1, then set up again the following day under a different name. Indeed, football particularly looks after itself in this respect. If a club goes into administration, the players will still be paid, and any other clubs that are owed money will receive the money.
Clearly, something has to be done to regulate finances in football more closely than they currently are. Pressure is building on the Premier League, UEFA and FIFA to introduce new measures to achieve this. However, in the most general terms, all of these organisations are simply football competition organisers. They must all work within the legal and regulatory frameworks that are provided by the governments of the countries’ that they work in.
On the 1st March, 2010, the Premier League’s new sustainability measures came into force. These were voted in by league chairmen back in September and set new guidelines and rules for clubs. Clubs have to submit future financial reports, and if the league does not believe that they will be able to meet their liabilities, they can impose sanctions, ranging from transfer embargoes, a moratorium on future contracts or even the forced sale of players. Clearly if the Premier League tried to impose these sanctions, it would be a controversial move, but it would be interesting to see how clubs react to these changes.
The debate over the style of ownership has become almost synonymous with the discussion into football finance recently. With the influx of foreign owners – 9 of the Premier League clubs are foreign-owned, and 7 of the top 9 – questions have been raised over the motivation of these owners. The Premier League itself reiterates that it is ownership-neutral. In other words, the actual style of ownership, whether it be an individual, a leveraged buyout, a fans trust, etc, is not important to them. Rather they are concerned over the sustainability of how the club is run.
The situation at Manchester United has been in the news recently with the growth of the ‘Red Knights’ movement to buy out the current owners – the Glazer family. The Glazer takeover was a leveraged buyout, and has saddled the club with a debt of over £700m. A recent £500m bond sale was pointed to as proof that the club is struggling to service their debts. The sale was over two times oversubscribed, and the Glazers have pointed to this as vindication of their business model. It shows that investors globally looked over their accounts and were still happy to buy the bond, showing their confidence in the future financial stability of the club.
Further uproar was seen when it was revealed that the club is paying a 14% interest rate on some of their PK loans. However, an interesting point that is not widely appreciated is that this increased spending on interest payments actually takes them into a lower tax band. As a result, the club actually saves money by paying this slightly higher interest rate, than it would by paying a lower rate. Whilst fans may dislike the style of Malcolm Glazer, he is a highly successful businessman, and it is unlikely that he would knowingly jeopardise the financial future of the company.
Despite this, there is a growing feeling that traditional English ownership by a single individual on whom the club is completely dependent is no longer sustainable. In Germany, there are regulations restricting any single owner to a maximum of 50% of the ownership of the club. Furthermore, a majority of the club must be German-owned. This is designed to prevent football from becoming divorced from its cultural and local roots and run purely as a business operation. In the USA, there are regulations restricting the purchase of a franchise based on a set amount of debt.
Under the new regulations that are expected in the coming years, patience will be required to build a club. It is possible to build a successful club, whilst also ensuring solid financial management. If we look at the Championship, there is relatively little correlation between the wage bill of clubs and the points accumulated over the course of the season. Indeed, clubs will small revenues are able to achieve success through good management – Burnley had the 23rd lowest revenue in the Championship last season, yet still achieved promotion to the Premiership. It may take longer than a quick-fix spending spree, but it will reward greater management skills in the long run.
There are a number of strategies and regulations that could be brought in to try and promote good financial management. Taking one example from the banks, there is no real bonus culture in football. In the banks, employees receive their salary, but a large proportion of their earnings come from bonuses, dependent on success. For example, the highest paid director of HSBC receives a salary of £800k per year, but received a bonus of £9m last year. On the other hand, footballers are generally paid the same, whether they win, lose or draw. So, a system could be introduced that pays a lower basic salary, but has the potential to reward players for achieving success. It is noticeable that a lot of the highest paid players in the Premier League are both at loss-making clubs, and under-achieving clubs.
Another suggestion that has been discussed by UEFA is that club spending on wages should be capped at a certain percentage of either revenue or gate receipts. Indeed, they have announced that this will be introduced in the coming years. Originally intended to be in force by 2012/13, it has recently been pushed back by three years. However, there are a number of problems with this. They need a legal way to ensure that it does not disadvantage European clubs against other global clubs. Secondly, and more importantly, they need to try and ensure that it does not simply lock in the current order of the clubs. The likes of Manchester United and Liverpool with their high revenues would always be able to pay higher wages than other clubs, meaning that they will always be challenging at the top. There is a worry that this would bring a guillotine down on 120 years of football development.
We now have an overview of the financial situation in English football. A clear example of financial mismanagement has been Portsmouth, and yesterday they released a document laying all of their debt bare to the public. The overall figure of the debt stands at £105m - £91m to unsecured creditors and £14m in secured debt to their owner, Balram Chainrai. They actually owe £119m in debt, but are owed £14m by Inter Milan, Liverpool and Tottenham from the transfers of Sulley Muntari, Glen Johnson and Jermain Defoe.
The document itself details all the debt that the club owes to various parties. The club owes £17.3m in unpaid transfer fees to a variety of clubs, including £1m to Chelsea for Glen Johnson and over £3m to Udinese for Sulley Muntari – players who have both already left the club. Tottenham are owed a further £3m for the transfer of Kevin-Prince Boateng, and £1m in a sell-on clause for Asmir Begovic, a player who never even played for Spurs.
They also owe £1.9m in unpaid bonuses to their players, including £280k to Peter Crouch, £265k to Glen Johnson and £338k to Sylvan Distin – again, players that have all left the club. They owe almost £10m to agents and scouting agencies, including over £2m to Israeli super-agent, Pini Zahavi, who was involved in the multiple sales of the club this year. Furthermore, over £38m is owed to former owners of the club.
Finally, the club owes £17.1m to HMRC in tax, NI contributions and VAT, whilst there are a huge number of other creditors to whom money is owed. The likes of St. John’s Ambulance is owed £2701.91, a local school is owed more than £40k, whilst some of the more bizarre debts include 20p owed to Qatar Airways, £4.34 to a local printing agency and £1725 to a local firm that design individual fruit cases, aimed at increasing children’s consumption of fruit. These are amongst a few of the over 400 trade creditors that the club has.
The next step for the club is a meeting on 6th May, coincidentally the same day as the General Election – a deliberate ploy by Andrew Andronikou, the administrator, to try and bury the news. At this meeting, he will set out his offer to creditors, expected to be between 20p and 23p to the £1. He will need to agree a deal with creditors holding 75% of the total unsecured debt within a month to allow Portsmouth to emerge from administration, and be reborn in the Championship next year. If he is unable to secure a deal, the club faces a serious risk of beginning next season with a points deduction, making an immediate return to the top flight a distant dream, and a relegation battle more of a priority.
All of this has hopefully provided an overview of football finance and mismanagement, including the most obvious example from this season. It is difficult to see how the future will pan out – the Premier League can only implement what its twenty member clubs want it to do. There is a growing case for an independent regulator to provide the leadership and drive for the change that football needs. Perhaps, the shock of what has happened to Portsmouth will lead chairmen to introduce the change that is required. Either way, something has to change, but how that will be achieved is unclear for now.
This issue has come under major scrutiny this year, but it has been lurking for many years. During the past decade, the economy has been booming. This has meant that it has been very easy to borrow money from banks, and so very easy to finance takeovers in this manner. Furthermore, if you ran into trouble, it would have been very simple to sell it on to the next buyer. However, then the recession hit. Suddenly, borrowing was no longer a simple matter and banks did not want to renegotiate existing loans – they needed their money back. This scared off new buyers, meaning that club owners that had run into trouble could no longer offload the club so easily. The situation with Mike Ashley at Newcastle was an excellent example of this.
In a report looking at the 2007/08 season, UEFA revealed that the combined debt of 18 of the Premiership clubs was just under £3.5bn. This figure does not include the debt of either Portsmouth or West Ham – two clubs that have had financial difficulties recently. This makes the Premiership the most indebted league on the planet, more than four times the figure of the next most indebted league – Spain’s Primera Division. Indeed, the debt held by Manchester United is greater than all 36 Bundesliga clubs combined. These figures begin to give an idea of how heavily Premiership clubs were in debt.
Commercially, the Premiership is by far the most successful league on the planet. It has recently sold the overseas broadcasting rights for 2010-13 for around £1.4bn, following a year after selling the domestic rights for £1.8bn. These figures are staggering and it is little surprise that it is the most indebted league. Debt is generally proportional to income – the most you make, the more banks will allow you to borrow. Being the highest earning league in Europe, we would expect the Premiership to have the highest debt.
Since this report, Premier League debt has actually fallen by around £1.5bn. This is partly due to the lack of availability of further credit, rising asset values, but a major part is the changing approach of clubs and owners. With the upcoming UEFA regulations potentially prohibiting clubs from competing in European competitions if they have outstanding debts, owners have been converting soft loans that they have made to the club into equity. This wipes out the debt that the club owes their owners. This approach has been taken by both Roman Abramovic at Chelsea and Sheikh Mansour at Manchester City.
However, it is important to note that debt is not always bad. So long as you can meet the repayments, then the debt is sustainable, and there are no problems. Arsenal fell into debt in financing the new stadium, but the solid business model that they follow has meant that they are easily able to meet the repayments on the loan without it severely impacting the business as a whole. It would be difficult to argue that there is anything wrong with this.
Over the years, two out of three football league clubs have gone into administration at some point in their history. It has almost become a strategy of football clubs and their owners. The insolvency law in this country makes it relatively easy for companies to write off their debt, paying 10p in the £1, then set up again the following day under a different name. Indeed, football particularly looks after itself in this respect. If a club goes into administration, the players will still be paid, and any other clubs that are owed money will receive the money.
Clearly, something has to be done to regulate finances in football more closely than they currently are. Pressure is building on the Premier League, UEFA and FIFA to introduce new measures to achieve this. However, in the most general terms, all of these organisations are simply football competition organisers. They must all work within the legal and regulatory frameworks that are provided by the governments of the countries’ that they work in.
On the 1st March, 2010, the Premier League’s new sustainability measures came into force. These were voted in by league chairmen back in September and set new guidelines and rules for clubs. Clubs have to submit future financial reports, and if the league does not believe that they will be able to meet their liabilities, they can impose sanctions, ranging from transfer embargoes, a moratorium on future contracts or even the forced sale of players. Clearly if the Premier League tried to impose these sanctions, it would be a controversial move, but it would be interesting to see how clubs react to these changes.
The debate over the style of ownership has become almost synonymous with the discussion into football finance recently. With the influx of foreign owners – 9 of the Premier League clubs are foreign-owned, and 7 of the top 9 – questions have been raised over the motivation of these owners. The Premier League itself reiterates that it is ownership-neutral. In other words, the actual style of ownership, whether it be an individual, a leveraged buyout, a fans trust, etc, is not important to them. Rather they are concerned over the sustainability of how the club is run.
The situation at Manchester United has been in the news recently with the growth of the ‘Red Knights’ movement to buy out the current owners – the Glazer family. The Glazer takeover was a leveraged buyout, and has saddled the club with a debt of over £700m. A recent £500m bond sale was pointed to as proof that the club is struggling to service their debts. The sale was over two times oversubscribed, and the Glazers have pointed to this as vindication of their business model. It shows that investors globally looked over their accounts and were still happy to buy the bond, showing their confidence in the future financial stability of the club.
Further uproar was seen when it was revealed that the club is paying a 14% interest rate on some of their PK loans. However, an interesting point that is not widely appreciated is that this increased spending on interest payments actually takes them into a lower tax band. As a result, the club actually saves money by paying this slightly higher interest rate, than it would by paying a lower rate. Whilst fans may dislike the style of Malcolm Glazer, he is a highly successful businessman, and it is unlikely that he would knowingly jeopardise the financial future of the company.
Despite this, there is a growing feeling that traditional English ownership by a single individual on whom the club is completely dependent is no longer sustainable. In Germany, there are regulations restricting any single owner to a maximum of 50% of the ownership of the club. Furthermore, a majority of the club must be German-owned. This is designed to prevent football from becoming divorced from its cultural and local roots and run purely as a business operation. In the USA, there are regulations restricting the purchase of a franchise based on a set amount of debt.
Under the new regulations that are expected in the coming years, patience will be required to build a club. It is possible to build a successful club, whilst also ensuring solid financial management. If we look at the Championship, there is relatively little correlation between the wage bill of clubs and the points accumulated over the course of the season. Indeed, clubs will small revenues are able to achieve success through good management – Burnley had the 23rd lowest revenue in the Championship last season, yet still achieved promotion to the Premiership. It may take longer than a quick-fix spending spree, but it will reward greater management skills in the long run.
There are a number of strategies and regulations that could be brought in to try and promote good financial management. Taking one example from the banks, there is no real bonus culture in football. In the banks, employees receive their salary, but a large proportion of their earnings come from bonuses, dependent on success. For example, the highest paid director of HSBC receives a salary of £800k per year, but received a bonus of £9m last year. On the other hand, footballers are generally paid the same, whether they win, lose or draw. So, a system could be introduced that pays a lower basic salary, but has the potential to reward players for achieving success. It is noticeable that a lot of the highest paid players in the Premier League are both at loss-making clubs, and under-achieving clubs.
Another suggestion that has been discussed by UEFA is that club spending on wages should be capped at a certain percentage of either revenue or gate receipts. Indeed, they have announced that this will be introduced in the coming years. Originally intended to be in force by 2012/13, it has recently been pushed back by three years. However, there are a number of problems with this. They need a legal way to ensure that it does not disadvantage European clubs against other global clubs. Secondly, and more importantly, they need to try and ensure that it does not simply lock in the current order of the clubs. The likes of Manchester United and Liverpool with their high revenues would always be able to pay higher wages than other clubs, meaning that they will always be challenging at the top. There is a worry that this would bring a guillotine down on 120 years of football development.
We now have an overview of the financial situation in English football. A clear example of financial mismanagement has been Portsmouth, and yesterday they released a document laying all of their debt bare to the public. The overall figure of the debt stands at £105m - £91m to unsecured creditors and £14m in secured debt to their owner, Balram Chainrai. They actually owe £119m in debt, but are owed £14m by Inter Milan, Liverpool and Tottenham from the transfers of Sulley Muntari, Glen Johnson and Jermain Defoe.
The document itself details all the debt that the club owes to various parties. The club owes £17.3m in unpaid transfer fees to a variety of clubs, including £1m to Chelsea for Glen Johnson and over £3m to Udinese for Sulley Muntari – players who have both already left the club. Tottenham are owed a further £3m for the transfer of Kevin-Prince Boateng, and £1m in a sell-on clause for Asmir Begovic, a player who never even played for Spurs.
They also owe £1.9m in unpaid bonuses to their players, including £280k to Peter Crouch, £265k to Glen Johnson and £338k to Sylvan Distin – again, players that have all left the club. They owe almost £10m to agents and scouting agencies, including over £2m to Israeli super-agent, Pini Zahavi, who was involved in the multiple sales of the club this year. Furthermore, over £38m is owed to former owners of the club.
Finally, the club owes £17.1m to HMRC in tax, NI contributions and VAT, whilst there are a huge number of other creditors to whom money is owed. The likes of St. John’s Ambulance is owed £2701.91, a local school is owed more than £40k, whilst some of the more bizarre debts include 20p owed to Qatar Airways, £4.34 to a local printing agency and £1725 to a local firm that design individual fruit cases, aimed at increasing children’s consumption of fruit. These are amongst a few of the over 400 trade creditors that the club has.
The next step for the club is a meeting on 6th May, coincidentally the same day as the General Election – a deliberate ploy by Andrew Andronikou, the administrator, to try and bury the news. At this meeting, he will set out his offer to creditors, expected to be between 20p and 23p to the £1. He will need to agree a deal with creditors holding 75% of the total unsecured debt within a month to allow Portsmouth to emerge from administration, and be reborn in the Championship next year. If he is unable to secure a deal, the club faces a serious risk of beginning next season with a points deduction, making an immediate return to the top flight a distant dream, and a relegation battle more of a priority.
All of this has hopefully provided an overview of football finance and mismanagement, including the most obvious example from this season. It is difficult to see how the future will pan out – the Premier League can only implement what its twenty member clubs want it to do. There is a growing case for an independent regulator to provide the leadership and drive for the change that football needs. Perhaps, the shock of what has happened to Portsmouth will lead chairmen to introduce the change that is required. Either way, something has to change, but how that will be achieved is unclear for now.
Tuesday 20 April 2010
Tuesday Betting Tips
Inter Milan v Barcelona
Two of the favourites to lift the Champions League trophy line up tonight at the Giuseppe Meazza. The volcanic ash cloud has played havoc with the travel arrangements of all the teams playing in European competitions this week and Barcelona is no exception, after making a 1000km trip by coach to reach Milan. They left on Sunday morning, straight after their hard fought 0-0 derby result with Espanyol, where they had to play the last 30 minutes with 10 men. This left them very little time to recover before this big match, although Zlatan Ibrahimovic was rested before the reunion with his former employer.
This will be a much harder tie for Barcelona than Arsenal was. Arsenal’s style of play played perfectly into the hands of the Catalans, whilst Jose Mourinho’s Inter side will try to stop Barcelona playing their normal game. They showed against Chelsea that they are solid in defence and have a threat going forward, and will employ similar tactics here. In the group stage, the two sides played out a goalless draw here, and I expect a similarly tight game tonight. Another interesting statistic is that Jose Mourinho is on a run of 134 league matches at home without defeat. This suggests that Barcelona will have to be on top form to win here, and even that may not be enough.
Barcelona will be missing Andres Iniesta, one of their creative sparks, although they do have plenty of quality still in their ranks. Ibrahimovic will start, which will be a boost for Barcelona. Inter are likely to start with Eto’o and Diego Milito up front, with Wesley Sneijder as the playmaker.
Despite dominating games, Barcelona tend not to win too many corners, whilst Inter are likely to play more on the counter attack, meaning they may not force too many either. Therefore, I expect there to be relatively few corners in this game.
Bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.76
Bet: Under 9.5 corners @ 1.85
Notts County v Rochdale
Both teams secured promotion to League 1 last weekend, and this game will go a long way to determine the side that will take the title. Notts County have been flying since appointing Steve Cotterill and have won 11 of their last 13 games to storm through to the top of the table. They have a couple of class players for the level – the likes of Kasper Schmeichel and Lee Hughes are simply too good to be playing at this level.
Rochdale have been impressive all season, although have somewhat limped over the line, with five wins and three defeats in their past 10 games. In their past 5 games, they have only scored 1 goal, conceding 8, including an embarrassing 5-0 defeat at Torquay. However, they are still a quality side and will put up a good fight here tonight.
There is always the worry that teams may relax after winning promotion, but this applies to both sides, and given the fact that this may decide the destination of the titles, both sides will be going for victory. County have been in magnificent form recently and should continue their late charge for the title.
Bet: Notts County to win @ 1.86
Caersws v Newtown
Caersws are already relegated and come into this game on the back of a 7-1 defeat last weekend against Bangor. Newtown are safe and will be disappointed to have not picked up 3 points last weekend. These two sides met earlier this month and Newton ran out 4-1 victors. Since then, Caersws have lost all three games, and simply are not good enough for this division. And finally, an interesting point that both keepers in this game are called Dave Jones – irrelevant, but interesting…
Bet: Newtown @ 1.68
The Return of the King
After sealing his sixth straight title at the Monte Carlo Masters, Rafael Nadal collapsed to the clay in joy. For a man who has now won 37 titles in his illustrious career, this one was particularly important to him. It has been eleven long months since the last time the Spaniard lifted a trophy, having struggled with both his form and injuries in recent times. However, the manner of his victory shows that the King of Clay is back and fully intends to regain his title at Roland Garros next month.
The Masters Series is one step down from the Grand Slam events. A swathe of top players arrived in Monte Carlo, aiming to win the third Masters event of the year. Five of the world’s top 10 players were there – of the others, Nikolay Davydenko, Juan Martin Del Potro and Robin Soderling all withdrew through injury. Therefore, it was a strong field lining up to try to take Nadal’s crown. However, come Sunday afternoon, Rafa stood victorious, having lost only 14 games in his 5 matches. Whilst comfortable victories were to be expected against his earlier opposition, it was the ease in which he dispatched David Ferrer, Juan Carlos Ferrero and Fernando Verdasco in successive rounds that will have his future opponents concerned. Verdasco has just moved back into the top 10 in the world and Nadal dispatched him in little over an hour for the loss of just one game.
In the past five years, Rafael Nadal has played 165 matches on clay. He has lost only 6 of these. The only men to have beaten him are Robin Soderling, Roger Federer (twice), Juan Carlos Ferrero, Igor Andreev and Gaston Gaudio. Andreev and Gaudio’s victories both came in early 2005, whilst Ferrero’s victory came when Nadal was struggling with blisters and barely able to move around the court. Roger Federer has beaten him in the Hamburg Masters in 2007 and the Madrid Masters last year, whilst it was Robin Soderling’s victory at the French Open last year that began the mini-slump for Nadal.
Following that defeat to Soderling, he underwent knee surgery, missing the opportunity to defend his Wimbledon title. He missed three months of the season, returning in mid-August at the Montreal Master Series tournament, where he lost at the quarter-final stage to Del Potro. Defeats to Novak Djokovic, Del Potro again, Marin Cilic and Nikolay Davydenko followed, before he lost all three of his matches in the end-of-season Masters Cup in London. He returned this year, but lost in the quarter-final stage of the Australian Open to Andy Murray before taking another two months out of the game. Semi-final defeats to Ivan Ljubicic and Andy Roddick followed on the American hard courts. But then, the Monte Carlo Masters came round and Nadal returned to his beloved clay.
“I started to have problems in the knees here (last year in Monte Carlo),” Nadal said. “I had a little bit personal problems in that moment, and mentally wasn't at the top for me part of the year.” Despite any problems he was having, he had just surpassed Roger Federer as the number 1 in the world. However, surgery to cure tendonitis in his knees, combined with the divorce of his parents had a major impact on him both on and off the court. He lost weight, leading to a loss in the intimidation factor that came with the bulging muscles in his arms.
When he made his comeback in Montreal, he was clearly not fully fit. He had problems with putting adequate weight on his injured knee, particularly when planting it to play backhand shots, meaning he was unable to generate the power in these shots. He had to resort to playing sliced backhands, which combined with his inability to cover the court as he used to, led to a diminishing presence on the court.
Early in the Australian Open this year, he appeared to be back close to his best, but after struggling early on against Andy Murray, his knees led to him retiring early. Nerves seemed to strike when closing in on a title in Indian Wells. However, victory in Monte Carlo will give him the belief that he needs to regain his top form. It is important to bear in mind that Roger Federer was not in this tournament. Furthermore, this was not a Grand Slam. However, he has the confidence again to believe that he can regain his Roland Garros crown.
The Masters Series is one step down from the Grand Slam events. A swathe of top players arrived in Monte Carlo, aiming to win the third Masters event of the year. Five of the world’s top 10 players were there – of the others, Nikolay Davydenko, Juan Martin Del Potro and Robin Soderling all withdrew through injury. Therefore, it was a strong field lining up to try to take Nadal’s crown. However, come Sunday afternoon, Rafa stood victorious, having lost only 14 games in his 5 matches. Whilst comfortable victories were to be expected against his earlier opposition, it was the ease in which he dispatched David Ferrer, Juan Carlos Ferrero and Fernando Verdasco in successive rounds that will have his future opponents concerned. Verdasco has just moved back into the top 10 in the world and Nadal dispatched him in little over an hour for the loss of just one game.
In the past five years, Rafael Nadal has played 165 matches on clay. He has lost only 6 of these. The only men to have beaten him are Robin Soderling, Roger Federer (twice), Juan Carlos Ferrero, Igor Andreev and Gaston Gaudio. Andreev and Gaudio’s victories both came in early 2005, whilst Ferrero’s victory came when Nadal was struggling with blisters and barely able to move around the court. Roger Federer has beaten him in the Hamburg Masters in 2007 and the Madrid Masters last year, whilst it was Robin Soderling’s victory at the French Open last year that began the mini-slump for Nadal.
Following that defeat to Soderling, he underwent knee surgery, missing the opportunity to defend his Wimbledon title. He missed three months of the season, returning in mid-August at the Montreal Master Series tournament, where he lost at the quarter-final stage to Del Potro. Defeats to Novak Djokovic, Del Potro again, Marin Cilic and Nikolay Davydenko followed, before he lost all three of his matches in the end-of-season Masters Cup in London. He returned this year, but lost in the quarter-final stage of the Australian Open to Andy Murray before taking another two months out of the game. Semi-final defeats to Ivan Ljubicic and Andy Roddick followed on the American hard courts. But then, the Monte Carlo Masters came round and Nadal returned to his beloved clay.
“I started to have problems in the knees here (last year in Monte Carlo),” Nadal said. “I had a little bit personal problems in that moment, and mentally wasn't at the top for me part of the year.” Despite any problems he was having, he had just surpassed Roger Federer as the number 1 in the world. However, surgery to cure tendonitis in his knees, combined with the divorce of his parents had a major impact on him both on and off the court. He lost weight, leading to a loss in the intimidation factor that came with the bulging muscles in his arms.
When he made his comeback in Montreal, he was clearly not fully fit. He had problems with putting adequate weight on his injured knee, particularly when planting it to play backhand shots, meaning he was unable to generate the power in these shots. He had to resort to playing sliced backhands, which combined with his inability to cover the court as he used to, led to a diminishing presence on the court.
Early in the Australian Open this year, he appeared to be back close to his best, but after struggling early on against Andy Murray, his knees led to him retiring early. Nerves seemed to strike when closing in on a title in Indian Wells. However, victory in Monte Carlo will give him the belief that he needs to regain his top form. It is important to bear in mind that Roger Federer was not in this tournament. Furthermore, this was not a Grand Slam. However, he has the confidence again to believe that he can regain his Roland Garros crown.
Wednesday 14 April 2010
DW's Wednesday Betting Tips
Altrincham v Stevenage
Altrincham have only two wins in their past thirteen games and currently lie 12th in the table with very little to play for other than pride. Top scorer, Chris Senior, should return after being rested against an out-of-form Oxford last weekend, where they were poor in falling to a 1-0 defeat.
Stevenage continue to edge toward the title and have won 12 of their last 14 games, with the only defeat coming against rivals Luton a few weeks ago. At once stage, it looked as though Stevenage could have the title wrapped up, but Luton’s run of 10 wins in 11 games has kept up the pressure and they are closing in on goal difference as well, having scored 32 in 7 games. This is a must win for Stevenage if they are to stay ahead of Luton and avoid the lottery of the playoffs.
Stevenage are one of the top teams in the division and do not drop points that often. Altrincham are safe in mid-table and play the top two in successive matches and I don’t expect them to get anything out of either.
Bet: Stevenage to win @ 1.57
Paris-SG v Quevilly
Paris-SG haven’t had the greatest season by their standards, languishing mid-table in Ligue 1. The French Cup remains their best hope of European football next season, so they will be taking this semi-final match seriously. They have had a couple of good results recently, drawing at Auxerre and beating Bordeaux at the weekend, so confidence should be high.
Fourth division amateurs, Quevilly, are an unlikely side to find at this stage of the tournament. Only one amateur side has ever reached the final – Calais RUFC in 2000 – and Quevilly will be hoping to repeat this achievement. They have shocked top division sides Rennes and Boulogne on-route to this stage, but this may be a step too far.
Whilst strange results can, and have, happened in the French Cup, the lure of European football next season will be a strong incentive for Paris-SG to go out and dispatch a team four divisions below them and reach the final.
Bet: Paris-SG to win @ 1.40
Rosenborg v Brann
Last year’s champions, Rosenborg, have begun well this season and are unbeaten thus far, with three wins and two draws from their opening five games. They produced an impressive performance away from home to beat Odd Grenland in their previous game and should carry their good form through to this game.
Brann have started poorly and lie in 14th place in the league. There is already pressure building on coach, Steinar Nilsen, as better things were expected from the club this season. They were beaten 4-3 at home at the weekend and the fans are beginning to turn on the team already.
Rosenborg should be strong enough to continue their solid start to the defence of their crown against a Brann side that is struggling for form early on in the season.
Bet: Rosenborg to win @ 1.36
Willem II v Ajax
Willem II are fighting against relegation and are second bottom on a run of four straight defeats. Although they are only four points off safety, they are looking like a team that doubts whether they can save themselves. A 4-0 defeat last time out against a mid-table Groningen side will not have helped their morale. However, they did hold PSV to a narrow 1-0 defeat, going down to a late Balazs Dzsudzsak goal.
Ajax are flying right now on a run of eight straight victories, scoring 33 goals in the process and conceding only 2 – the highlight being a 4-1 victory over their rivals PSV. They currently lie four points behind Steve McClaren’s Twente side, but have a game in hand. Despite scraping a 1-0 win last away game, they had scored 11 in the previous 2 before that, so goals are clearly not an issue.
Ajax will have their eye firmly on the title, and their terrific recent run of form will have given them the confidence to believe they can do it. This should be a comfortable victory for the Amsterdam outfit.
Bet: Ajax -1.5, -2AH @ 1.57
FK Crvena Zvezda v OFK Beograd & Partizan v Vojvodina
Morale is high in the Crvena Zvezda camp after they moved four points clear at the top of the league last weekend. They are on a run of four straight wins and have won 23 of their last 26 games, including a 2-0 win at OFK two weeks ago. They are expecting a bumper crowd for this game to roar the team through to the final. OFK lie 4th in the table, but a huge 24 points behind Crvena Zvezda. They are a decent team as far as Serbian football goes, but they are a long way behind their opponents in terms of quality.
Partizan are 2nd in the table and have 8 wins in their past 11 games. However, pressure is on the coach, who is expected to be sacked if they lose to Vojvodina in this semi-final. Again, they are simply far better than their opponents, having beaten them 2-1 a few weeks ago, and they are unbeaten in 23 league matches this season.
The two teams that top the Serbian league are streets ahead of all the competition and it should be no surprise to find them playing each other in the Serbian Cup final.
Bet: Crvena Zvezda & Partizan to win @ 1.81
Rijeka v Croatia Sesvete
After a poor run of only 1 win in 14, they improved to hold leaders Dinamo Zagreb to a 2-2 draw two weeks ago and smashed Medimurje 5-1 last weekend. Those results lessened the pressure and virtually secured their place in the top division for next season.
Sesvete are the worst team in the division, with 11 defeats in their last 15 games. They won last time out against Inter Zaprešic, but they have been poor away from home, scoring only 7 goals all season. They are 10 points from safety and are doomed to relegation.
Rijeka have finally found some form after a terrible run and their confidence has returned. They should win this comfortably.
Bet: Rijeka -1.75AH @ 1.90
Lokomotiva v Medimurje
Lokomotiva have gone three games without a win or a goal. However, these games have been against 3 of the top 5, and they have got two points from these games. By all accounts, they have been playing well and should get back to winning ways here tonight.
Medimurje are under huge pressure after a crushing 5-1 defeat at home last weekend. Only 1 win in 12 games has seem them slump into the relegation zone and they have only won once away from home all season, losing the other 11 games.
Lokomotiva have been performing well recently, despite results not going their way, and they should get back to winning ways against a poor Medimurje team tonight.
Bet: Lokomotiva -0.75AH @ 1.73
NK Zagreb v Karlovac
Zagreb have only 1 win in 8 games and are 4 points from safety. Simply put, they need to win this game and you would expect them to go out and attack Karlovac. They have struggled to break down defensive-minded teams this season, and this will be a challenge for them.
Karlovac haven’t lost in their previous 9 games, although they dropped out of the Europa League places after dropping points at the weekend. They play a defensive formation and are quick on the counter attack. They have only scored 25 goals in 24 games this season, but have only conceded 14 during that time.
Zagreb need to attack looking for the win, but this could prove to be a dangerous tactic against the solid counter attacking style of Karlovac.
Bet: Karlovac +0.5AH @ 2.05
Zulte-Waregem v Club Brugge
Zulte are in crisis at the moment, with no win in 10 games. Rumours that several of their players tested positive for alcohol following their defeat at the weekend. Their poor run of form coincided with the loss of playmaker Berrier to injury and they are without two further central midfielders tonight.
Club Brugge should have won at the weekend, but missed several chances to settle the game, which eventually cost them. They need a win to strengthen their hold on 2nd place ahead of Gent. They are without defender Ryan Donk, but he was playing out of position and was at fault for the equaliser last weekend, so shouldn’t be a huge loss.
Club Brugge will fancy their chances against a Zulte team that has major problems on and off the pitch at the moment.
Bet: Club Brugge @ 1.72
Tottenham v Arsenal
Tottenham will be looking to bounce back from the disappointment of an extra-time defeat to Portsmouth in the FA Cup on Sunday. However, there are likely to be some tired legs after that game, and the loss of Nico Kranjcar to injury, and more importantly, Wilson Palacios to suspension, are major blows. Only three senior midfielders are available, and Ledley King is also a doubt through injury.
Arsenal will be boosted by the return of Robin Van Persie, although he will start on the bench for this game. Alex Song is still injured, so Sol Campbell will play against his former employers. A victory tonight in the derby will see Arsenal move above Manchester United into 2nd place, only three points behind leaders Chelsea, although the satisfaction of victory over their rivals will be a driving force in this match.
Bet: Arsenal -0.25AH @ 1.98
Altrincham have only two wins in their past thirteen games and currently lie 12th in the table with very little to play for other than pride. Top scorer, Chris Senior, should return after being rested against an out-of-form Oxford last weekend, where they were poor in falling to a 1-0 defeat.
Stevenage continue to edge toward the title and have won 12 of their last 14 games, with the only defeat coming against rivals Luton a few weeks ago. At once stage, it looked as though Stevenage could have the title wrapped up, but Luton’s run of 10 wins in 11 games has kept up the pressure and they are closing in on goal difference as well, having scored 32 in 7 games. This is a must win for Stevenage if they are to stay ahead of Luton and avoid the lottery of the playoffs.
Stevenage are one of the top teams in the division and do not drop points that often. Altrincham are safe in mid-table and play the top two in successive matches and I don’t expect them to get anything out of either.
Bet: Stevenage to win @ 1.57
Paris-SG v Quevilly
Paris-SG haven’t had the greatest season by their standards, languishing mid-table in Ligue 1. The French Cup remains their best hope of European football next season, so they will be taking this semi-final match seriously. They have had a couple of good results recently, drawing at Auxerre and beating Bordeaux at the weekend, so confidence should be high.
Fourth division amateurs, Quevilly, are an unlikely side to find at this stage of the tournament. Only one amateur side has ever reached the final – Calais RUFC in 2000 – and Quevilly will be hoping to repeat this achievement. They have shocked top division sides Rennes and Boulogne on-route to this stage, but this may be a step too far.
Whilst strange results can, and have, happened in the French Cup, the lure of European football next season will be a strong incentive for Paris-SG to go out and dispatch a team four divisions below them and reach the final.
Bet: Paris-SG to win @ 1.40
Rosenborg v Brann
Last year’s champions, Rosenborg, have begun well this season and are unbeaten thus far, with three wins and two draws from their opening five games. They produced an impressive performance away from home to beat Odd Grenland in their previous game and should carry their good form through to this game.
Brann have started poorly and lie in 14th place in the league. There is already pressure building on coach, Steinar Nilsen, as better things were expected from the club this season. They were beaten 4-3 at home at the weekend and the fans are beginning to turn on the team already.
Rosenborg should be strong enough to continue their solid start to the defence of their crown against a Brann side that is struggling for form early on in the season.
Bet: Rosenborg to win @ 1.36
Willem II v Ajax
Willem II are fighting against relegation and are second bottom on a run of four straight defeats. Although they are only four points off safety, they are looking like a team that doubts whether they can save themselves. A 4-0 defeat last time out against a mid-table Groningen side will not have helped their morale. However, they did hold PSV to a narrow 1-0 defeat, going down to a late Balazs Dzsudzsak goal.
Ajax are flying right now on a run of eight straight victories, scoring 33 goals in the process and conceding only 2 – the highlight being a 4-1 victory over their rivals PSV. They currently lie four points behind Steve McClaren’s Twente side, but have a game in hand. Despite scraping a 1-0 win last away game, they had scored 11 in the previous 2 before that, so goals are clearly not an issue.
Ajax will have their eye firmly on the title, and their terrific recent run of form will have given them the confidence to believe they can do it. This should be a comfortable victory for the Amsterdam outfit.
Bet: Ajax -1.5, -2AH @ 1.57
FK Crvena Zvezda v OFK Beograd & Partizan v Vojvodina
Morale is high in the Crvena Zvezda camp after they moved four points clear at the top of the league last weekend. They are on a run of four straight wins and have won 23 of their last 26 games, including a 2-0 win at OFK two weeks ago. They are expecting a bumper crowd for this game to roar the team through to the final. OFK lie 4th in the table, but a huge 24 points behind Crvena Zvezda. They are a decent team as far as Serbian football goes, but they are a long way behind their opponents in terms of quality.
Partizan are 2nd in the table and have 8 wins in their past 11 games. However, pressure is on the coach, who is expected to be sacked if they lose to Vojvodina in this semi-final. Again, they are simply far better than their opponents, having beaten them 2-1 a few weeks ago, and they are unbeaten in 23 league matches this season.
The two teams that top the Serbian league are streets ahead of all the competition and it should be no surprise to find them playing each other in the Serbian Cup final.
Bet: Crvena Zvezda & Partizan to win @ 1.81
Rijeka v Croatia Sesvete
After a poor run of only 1 win in 14, they improved to hold leaders Dinamo Zagreb to a 2-2 draw two weeks ago and smashed Medimurje 5-1 last weekend. Those results lessened the pressure and virtually secured their place in the top division for next season.
Sesvete are the worst team in the division, with 11 defeats in their last 15 games. They won last time out against Inter Zaprešic, but they have been poor away from home, scoring only 7 goals all season. They are 10 points from safety and are doomed to relegation.
Rijeka have finally found some form after a terrible run and their confidence has returned. They should win this comfortably.
Bet: Rijeka -1.75AH @ 1.90
Lokomotiva v Medimurje
Lokomotiva have gone three games without a win or a goal. However, these games have been against 3 of the top 5, and they have got two points from these games. By all accounts, they have been playing well and should get back to winning ways here tonight.
Medimurje are under huge pressure after a crushing 5-1 defeat at home last weekend. Only 1 win in 12 games has seem them slump into the relegation zone and they have only won once away from home all season, losing the other 11 games.
Lokomotiva have been performing well recently, despite results not going their way, and they should get back to winning ways against a poor Medimurje team tonight.
Bet: Lokomotiva -0.75AH @ 1.73
NK Zagreb v Karlovac
Zagreb have only 1 win in 8 games and are 4 points from safety. Simply put, they need to win this game and you would expect them to go out and attack Karlovac. They have struggled to break down defensive-minded teams this season, and this will be a challenge for them.
Karlovac haven’t lost in their previous 9 games, although they dropped out of the Europa League places after dropping points at the weekend. They play a defensive formation and are quick on the counter attack. They have only scored 25 goals in 24 games this season, but have only conceded 14 during that time.
Zagreb need to attack looking for the win, but this could prove to be a dangerous tactic against the solid counter attacking style of Karlovac.
Bet: Karlovac +0.5AH @ 2.05
Zulte-Waregem v Club Brugge
Zulte are in crisis at the moment, with no win in 10 games. Rumours that several of their players tested positive for alcohol following their defeat at the weekend. Their poor run of form coincided with the loss of playmaker Berrier to injury and they are without two further central midfielders tonight.
Club Brugge should have won at the weekend, but missed several chances to settle the game, which eventually cost them. They need a win to strengthen their hold on 2nd place ahead of Gent. They are without defender Ryan Donk, but he was playing out of position and was at fault for the equaliser last weekend, so shouldn’t be a huge loss.
Club Brugge will fancy their chances against a Zulte team that has major problems on and off the pitch at the moment.
Bet: Club Brugge @ 1.72
Tottenham v Arsenal
Tottenham will be looking to bounce back from the disappointment of an extra-time defeat to Portsmouth in the FA Cup on Sunday. However, there are likely to be some tired legs after that game, and the loss of Nico Kranjcar to injury, and more importantly, Wilson Palacios to suspension, are major blows. Only three senior midfielders are available, and Ledley King is also a doubt through injury.
Arsenal will be boosted by the return of Robin Van Persie, although he will start on the bench for this game. Alex Song is still injured, so Sol Campbell will play against his former employers. A victory tonight in the derby will see Arsenal move above Manchester United into 2nd place, only three points behind leaders Chelsea, although the satisfaction of victory over their rivals will be a driving force in this match.
Bet: Arsenal -0.25AH @ 1.98
Tuesday 13 April 2010
DW's Midweek Betting Tips
Heracles v RKC Waalwijk
Heracles are looking comfortable in the playoff places for a Europa League place next year. With only one defeat in the last seven and three straight home wins, they will be hoping to consolidate their position in the playoff places.
Proving everybody wrong, Waalwijk pulled off an impressive win against Vitesse at the weekend. After 13 straight defeats, a 4-1 victory has given them the faintest hope of survival, despite being eight points adrift at the bottom.
Although Waalwijk cost me at the weekend, this game against Heracles will be a much greater challenge, and having won only once away from home all season, I expect a comfortable win for Heracles.
Bet: Heracles -1.5AH @ 1.64
Berwick v Livingstone
Berwick are battling for a place in the playoffs in the Scottish Division 3, but with only two wins in the past eight games, they are struggling a little of late. However, they are unbeaten in three games at home, following a streak of four straight defeats. They have a number of injury concerns, although have taken four points from a possible six against Livingstone this season.
Livingstone will be crowned champions with a win tonight, although would be virtually guaranteed promotion with a draw due to their superior goal difference. Two defeats in three matches has been a bit of a stutter for the team having not lost in the league since early December prior to this. The fact that they are a fully-professional outfit gives them an edge in this division.
Despite a recent slump, Livingstone are the class outfit in this division and it would be foolish to bet against them bouncing back to winning ways tonight.
Bet: Livingstone @ 2.00
Tranmere Rovers v Wycombe Wanderers
Tranmere are desperately fighting relegation from League 1 and have found some good form recently, particularly at home. Victories over Norwich, Southampton and Leyton Orient in their past six home games have given them hope of survival.
Wycombe are also fighting relegation, but lie 7 points adrift with only five games remaining. Whilst they have only lost four of their last 10 away matches, they haven’t kept a clean sheet since November, which is a major problem for them. They have scored 11 in their last 6 away games, showing they have goals in them though.
Tranmere still have a realistic hope of survival, whilst Wycombe are virtually doomed despite victory last weekend. This added incentive, combined with solid recent form at home, should be enough to see Tranmere home.
Bet: Tranmere to win @ 1.90
Yeovil v Millwall
Yeovil have lost four of the last seven games at home and have little to play for this season now. They have a number of injury concerns ahead of the game.
Millwall are in the chase for automatic promotion and following Swindon’s slip last night have the chance to pull away. They have won their last three away from home, and eight out of ten in the league. With virtually no injury concerns, they know that three points here would be a massive boost considering the tricky fixtures that they end the season with.
Millwall are flying at the moment and are the form team in the division. With a fully fit squad, they should have a good chance against a Yeovil team who are safe in mid-table.
Bet: Millwall @ 1.75
Chelsea v Bolton
Chelsea have been in imperious form in recent weeks, having won four games, scoring 17 goals since crashing out of the Champions League to Inter Milan. Ancelotti is expected to make a couple of changes from the side that won at Wembley on Saturday, bringing in Michael Ballack, Salomon Kalou and Nicolas Anelka for Deco, Joe Cole and Didier Drogba, but they will still have a very strong team on display.
Bolton lie five points clear of the relegation zone, and whilst not completely safe, should be fine this season. Their away form has been sketchy with a number of comfortable defeats against the likes of Blackburn, Tottenham and Sunderland. They should get the points to stay up, but not against Chelsea – it will be more damage limitation tonight.
Chelsea will surely win this game and it is really a matter of how many. Bolton tend to be a little too negative when approaching these games and lie down too easily, so this could be a relatively big win.
Bet: Chelsea -2AH @ 1.68
Accrington Stanley v Port Vale
Accrington have lost five and drawn one of their last six games and have only 3 wins in their last sixteen games. They are comfortable in mid-table, with virtually nothing to play for whatsoever. Their home record reads 9-1-9 so far, suggesting they are vulnerable at home, and have conceded 35 goals at home – more than any other side in the division.
Port Vale still maintain hopes of a playoff place, lying only four points back with five games left to play. Their away form has been promising, with four wins in the last six games. A solid point against Aldershot at the weekend was a boost, and their work-rate and determination has been noticeable in recent games.
Port Vale have more to play for in this game against a seemingly disinterested Accrington side that have been inconsistent at home throughout the season. A victory for Vale would boost their hopes of playoff football.
Bet: Port Vale @ 2.60
Heracles are looking comfortable in the playoff places for a Europa League place next year. With only one defeat in the last seven and three straight home wins, they will be hoping to consolidate their position in the playoff places.
Proving everybody wrong, Waalwijk pulled off an impressive win against Vitesse at the weekend. After 13 straight defeats, a 4-1 victory has given them the faintest hope of survival, despite being eight points adrift at the bottom.
Although Waalwijk cost me at the weekend, this game against Heracles will be a much greater challenge, and having won only once away from home all season, I expect a comfortable win for Heracles.
Bet: Heracles -1.5AH @ 1.64
Berwick v Livingstone
Berwick are battling for a place in the playoffs in the Scottish Division 3, but with only two wins in the past eight games, they are struggling a little of late. However, they are unbeaten in three games at home, following a streak of four straight defeats. They have a number of injury concerns, although have taken four points from a possible six against Livingstone this season.
Livingstone will be crowned champions with a win tonight, although would be virtually guaranteed promotion with a draw due to their superior goal difference. Two defeats in three matches has been a bit of a stutter for the team having not lost in the league since early December prior to this. The fact that they are a fully-professional outfit gives them an edge in this division.
Despite a recent slump, Livingstone are the class outfit in this division and it would be foolish to bet against them bouncing back to winning ways tonight.
Bet: Livingstone @ 2.00
Tranmere Rovers v Wycombe Wanderers
Tranmere are desperately fighting relegation from League 1 and have found some good form recently, particularly at home. Victories over Norwich, Southampton and Leyton Orient in their past six home games have given them hope of survival.
Wycombe are also fighting relegation, but lie 7 points adrift with only five games remaining. Whilst they have only lost four of their last 10 away matches, they haven’t kept a clean sheet since November, which is a major problem for them. They have scored 11 in their last 6 away games, showing they have goals in them though.
Tranmere still have a realistic hope of survival, whilst Wycombe are virtually doomed despite victory last weekend. This added incentive, combined with solid recent form at home, should be enough to see Tranmere home.
Bet: Tranmere to win @ 1.90
Yeovil v Millwall
Yeovil have lost four of the last seven games at home and have little to play for this season now. They have a number of injury concerns ahead of the game.
Millwall are in the chase for automatic promotion and following Swindon’s slip last night have the chance to pull away. They have won their last three away from home, and eight out of ten in the league. With virtually no injury concerns, they know that three points here would be a massive boost considering the tricky fixtures that they end the season with.
Millwall are flying at the moment and are the form team in the division. With a fully fit squad, they should have a good chance against a Yeovil team who are safe in mid-table.
Bet: Millwall @ 1.75
Chelsea v Bolton
Chelsea have been in imperious form in recent weeks, having won four games, scoring 17 goals since crashing out of the Champions League to Inter Milan. Ancelotti is expected to make a couple of changes from the side that won at Wembley on Saturday, bringing in Michael Ballack, Salomon Kalou and Nicolas Anelka for Deco, Joe Cole and Didier Drogba, but they will still have a very strong team on display.
Bolton lie five points clear of the relegation zone, and whilst not completely safe, should be fine this season. Their away form has been sketchy with a number of comfortable defeats against the likes of Blackburn, Tottenham and Sunderland. They should get the points to stay up, but not against Chelsea – it will be more damage limitation tonight.
Chelsea will surely win this game and it is really a matter of how many. Bolton tend to be a little too negative when approaching these games and lie down too easily, so this could be a relatively big win.
Bet: Chelsea -2AH @ 1.68
Accrington Stanley v Port Vale
Accrington have lost five and drawn one of their last six games and have only 3 wins in their last sixteen games. They are comfortable in mid-table, with virtually nothing to play for whatsoever. Their home record reads 9-1-9 so far, suggesting they are vulnerable at home, and have conceded 35 goals at home – more than any other side in the division.
Port Vale still maintain hopes of a playoff place, lying only four points back with five games left to play. Their away form has been promising, with four wins in the last six games. A solid point against Aldershot at the weekend was a boost, and their work-rate and determination has been noticeable in recent games.
Port Vale have more to play for in this game against a seemingly disinterested Accrington side that have been inconsistent at home throughout the season. A victory for Vale would boost their hopes of playoff football.
Bet: Port Vale @ 2.60
Friday 9 April 2010
DW's Weekend Betting Tips
So, I got 3 out 4 of predictions right last time around, missing out on the other by a single goal. Hopefully I can keep up the high success rate this weekend. The bets are ordered in terms of confidence - most confident first down to least confident. Hope these help...
Leeds United v Southend & Millwall v Gillingham
After a poor run of form, Leeds have targeted the two games this week as must-win games. They won the first of these on Monday against Yeovil and will fancy their chances tomorrow against Southend.
Southend have only won one game in 2010 so far and have lost eight on the bounce away from home. They have fallen into the relegation places and seem to be struggling to find any kind of form right now. Without any points away from home against teams in the top half and only 14 fit professionals, they will struggle.
Millwall are the form team in the division, making a late charge for automatic promotion. They have only lost once at home all season and face a side still winless away from home and battling relegation.
Bet: Leeds & Millwall both to win @ 1.9
Bet: Leeds -1.5AH @ 2.11
RKC Waalwijk v Vitesse
Waalwijk are simply not good enough to be in the top division, having accumulated only 12 points in 30 games this season, losing 12 out of 15 games at home, and on a run of 13 straight defeats. They have conceded 5 or more in four of their last six games, scoring only 5 in the process.
Vitesse are still not entirely safe, lying only six points above the relegation zone. They will fancy this game to stretch their difference above the zone, and virtually guarantee their place in the top division for next year. Two wins in their last three games, including an impressive 3-0 win last weekend against Groningen suggests they are in decent form.
This is more of a bet against Waalwijk than for Vitesse, but they should have enough to win without too much effort.
Bet: Vitesse @ 1.83
Sampdoria v Genoa
A derby game between these two sides. Sampdoria have been in decent form recently losing only 2 of the last 13 games, and are still unbeaten at home this season. Their talisman, Antonio Cassano, has returned to the team recently and got a goal at the weekend, and his partnership with Pazzini up front is working well. They need a win to keep the pressure on Palermo for the final Champions League place and will fancy their chances.
Genoa are one of the most inconsistent teams in the Serie A. However, they haven’t won away from home since early October, and their attacking play means that there are always goals in their games.
Obviously in a derby game, anything can happen, but Sampdoria need the win to preserve their chances for 4th and will fancy their chances against a Genoa side that are poor away from home.
Bet: Sampdoria to win @ 2.2
Hull City v Burnley
Hull are battling hard to try and avoid relegation from the Premiership. New manager Iain Dowie will get them fired up for this and the return of Jimmy Bullard has given them an extra spark and experience. They know that this is an excellent chance to pick up three points, and the pressure is really on them to get a result here.
Burnley have been poor away from home all season with only 1 point in 16 matches. They were simply awful against Manchester City last weekend, and haven’t won since early February, including home defeats against Portsmouth, Wolves and Blackburn. Rumours that Brian Laws will be sacked soon and bust-ups in the dressing room won’t help their cause, and defeat here would be a massive, potentially fatal blow to their hopes of avoiding relegation.
The pressure is really on Hull tomorrow, but the return of Bullard is a big bonus for them, and combined with Burnley’s poor away form, they should have a good chance of picking up all three points.
Bet: Hull @ 1.72
Livorno v Udinese
Livorno haven’t won since the 10th January and have only taken 5 points from 13 games since then. They lie bottom of the Serie A, eight points from safety. Manager Serse Cosmi was sacked earlier this week and replaced by Gennaro Ruotolo, who led them to promotion last season, but how much of a difference this will make is questionable.
Udinese are their own worst enemies. They have recorded wins against Milan, Napoli, Juventus and Palermo in 2010, but are yet to record an away victory this season. Confidence will be high after a 3-0 victory over Juventus last weekend and a victory would virtually assure them of avoiding relegation. However, defeat would potentially leave them right in the mire.
Although they have been awful away from home this season, Udinese have the quality to pick up a vital three points here and secure their safety. The handicap provides some cover on the draw.
Bet: Udinese 0AH @ 1.645
Leeds United v Southend & Millwall v Gillingham
After a poor run of form, Leeds have targeted the two games this week as must-win games. They won the first of these on Monday against Yeovil and will fancy their chances tomorrow against Southend.
Southend have only won one game in 2010 so far and have lost eight on the bounce away from home. They have fallen into the relegation places and seem to be struggling to find any kind of form right now. Without any points away from home against teams in the top half and only 14 fit professionals, they will struggle.
Millwall are the form team in the division, making a late charge for automatic promotion. They have only lost once at home all season and face a side still winless away from home and battling relegation.
Bet: Leeds & Millwall both to win @ 1.9
Bet: Leeds -1.5AH @ 2.11
RKC Waalwijk v Vitesse
Waalwijk are simply not good enough to be in the top division, having accumulated only 12 points in 30 games this season, losing 12 out of 15 games at home, and on a run of 13 straight defeats. They have conceded 5 or more in four of their last six games, scoring only 5 in the process.
Vitesse are still not entirely safe, lying only six points above the relegation zone. They will fancy this game to stretch their difference above the zone, and virtually guarantee their place in the top division for next year. Two wins in their last three games, including an impressive 3-0 win last weekend against Groningen suggests they are in decent form.
This is more of a bet against Waalwijk than for Vitesse, but they should have enough to win without too much effort.
Bet: Vitesse @ 1.83
Sampdoria v Genoa
A derby game between these two sides. Sampdoria have been in decent form recently losing only 2 of the last 13 games, and are still unbeaten at home this season. Their talisman, Antonio Cassano, has returned to the team recently and got a goal at the weekend, and his partnership with Pazzini up front is working well. They need a win to keep the pressure on Palermo for the final Champions League place and will fancy their chances.
Genoa are one of the most inconsistent teams in the Serie A. However, they haven’t won away from home since early October, and their attacking play means that there are always goals in their games.
Obviously in a derby game, anything can happen, but Sampdoria need the win to preserve their chances for 4th and will fancy their chances against a Genoa side that are poor away from home.
Bet: Sampdoria to win @ 2.2
Hull City v Burnley
Hull are battling hard to try and avoid relegation from the Premiership. New manager Iain Dowie will get them fired up for this and the return of Jimmy Bullard has given them an extra spark and experience. They know that this is an excellent chance to pick up three points, and the pressure is really on them to get a result here.
Burnley have been poor away from home all season with only 1 point in 16 matches. They were simply awful against Manchester City last weekend, and haven’t won since early February, including home defeats against Portsmouth, Wolves and Blackburn. Rumours that Brian Laws will be sacked soon and bust-ups in the dressing room won’t help their cause, and defeat here would be a massive, potentially fatal blow to their hopes of avoiding relegation.
The pressure is really on Hull tomorrow, but the return of Bullard is a big bonus for them, and combined with Burnley’s poor away form, they should have a good chance of picking up all three points.
Bet: Hull @ 1.72
Livorno v Udinese
Livorno haven’t won since the 10th January and have only taken 5 points from 13 games since then. They lie bottom of the Serie A, eight points from safety. Manager Serse Cosmi was sacked earlier this week and replaced by Gennaro Ruotolo, who led them to promotion last season, but how much of a difference this will make is questionable.
Udinese are their own worst enemies. They have recorded wins against Milan, Napoli, Juventus and Palermo in 2010, but are yet to record an away victory this season. Confidence will be high after a 3-0 victory over Juventus last weekend and a victory would virtually assure them of avoiding relegation. However, defeat would potentially leave them right in the mire.
Although they have been awful away from home this season, Udinese have the quality to pick up a vital three points here and secure their safety. The handicap provides some cover on the draw.
Bet: Udinese 0AH @ 1.645
Tuesday 6 April 2010
A Tragic Career - the story of Nii Lamptey
He should have been a worldwide superstar, but instead, very few people know his story. At the age of 19, Nii Lamptey had the footballing world at his feet. Hailed as his natural successor by Pelé himself, he had outshone the likes of Alessandro Del Piero, Demetrio Albertini, Juan Sebastián Verón and Josep Guardiola at youth tournaments, and was the top scorer in the Dutch league for PSV the previous season. However, he has tragically become a prime example of an unfulfilled talent. A talent so rare should have been protected and nurtured. However, abuse and exploitation were all that he received. So here is his story…
His childhood was not a happy one. He was neglected and horribly abused by both of his parents, resorting to sleeping under cars and in street kiosks at time to avoid being beating at home. He cannot even remember the name of his school and turned to football as a refuge from his life at home. However, when his father discovered his talent, he turned up to games simply to shout abuse at him. Even today, he still has scars on his body where his father burned him with cigarettes and lashed him with his belt. He was also beaten by his mother until she left, following a divorce when he was only 8. Soon after, his father remarried and he was kicked out of the family house, and offered the chance to stay with a Muslim football club, on the condition he converted to Islam. He was happy to do so to escape the abuse at home.
At the age of only 14, he played in the U16 World Cup in Scotland, and used the small amount of money from this to flee Ghana, moving to Belgium. He told nobody about this until he was already there. However, the Ghanaian FA wanted to build their team around him, and following a youth tournament, confiscated his passport to prevent him from returning to Belgium. To escape, he hid in the back of a taxi, illegally crossing three international borders until he reached Nigeria, where he met the agent of the Nigerian captain, Stephen Keshi – one of the few people Lamptey ever trusted. He flew to Belgium on a fake passport, posing as Keshi’s son, but on his arrival, nobody at Anderlecht, where Keshi played, believed it was the real Nii Lamptey. He was sent to train with the older boys as a test, and within moments, they were convinced they had the real thing. He signed a 5-year contract at the age of 16 for the club, making his debut soon after, following a change in the rules by the Belgian FA to allow him to appear at such a young age.
He had an excellent first two seasons for Anderlecht, scoring nine goals in 30 appearances, before being transferred to PSV. In his only season there, he hit ten goals in 22 games, leading the scoring charts for the club. However, his tragic decline had already begun. He could not read or write, or even express himself in English, and he was horrifically exploited by football’s money men. He was tricked into signing an exclusive deal with an Italian agent, Antonio Caliendo, which gave Caliendo the player’s registration, not his club. As a result, it was in Caliendo’s interest to drum up the highest transfer fees possibly for Lamptey, regardless of the effect on his career.
He was sold to Aston Villa the following year, where he was taken in by Ron Atkinson, who even arranged for the signing-on fee to be paid directly to Lamptey, and not through his agent. Lamptey admitted that his agent hadn’t even told him that there was a signing-on fee. However, after a stunning debut goal, he struggled and when Atkinson left for Coventry, he followed him there.
More disappointment was to follow for Lamptey in 1996 when he was sent off for Ghana in their semi-final defeat in the African Nations Cup against South Africa. He played in one further friendly for Ghana after this, but never played again for his country – a fact that still hurts today. “It was taken from me. It is really, really painful. Sometimes I’ll be in my room and just cry.” All this seems so long ago, but it really hits home when you consider that he would only have been 33 when Ghana hosted the African Nations Cup in 2008 – a tournament he may have led his country out at if things had been different. He admitted that he could not bear to even go to the stadium to watch the games – rather he had to watch them alone at home.
In 1997, he moved to Boca Juniors, hoping to follow in the footsteps of his idol – the legendary Diego Maradona – where due to foreigner rules, he was loaned out to rival Argentinean club Union Santa Fe. However, tragedy struck when his son was taken ill and the whole family moved to a Buenos Aires hotel to be closer to him. After almost three months in intensive care, he passed away. This was a huge personal blow for Lamptey, which was made worse when Ghanaian authorities refused to let him bury his son in Ghana. This episode was sadly mirrored three years later when he lost another child to the same lung disease, whilst playing in Germany.
Thirteen clubs in only 16 years begins to give us an indication of the lack of any form of continuity over the course of his career. When you consider that at the age of 19, he was World Champion and Golden Ball winner at the 1991 U17 World Cup in Italy, Olympic Bronze medallist in 1992 and had a runner-up medal in the 1993 U20 World Cup, whilst being linked with the likes of Real Madrid; it seems a tragic waste of potential.
One thing that seems to torture him more than anything is his lack of education. “I have been through hell, through so much pain. If I could write a book about it, it would be something else, I tell you. But how can I do that, when I can’t even write a letter,” he said in a 2008 interview. He has now set up a junior school in Ghana, which also now has close links to a local football academy, to try and give the children of Accra the opportunity that he never had. The school now has over 400 students, and he has now given up on his football career to focus on projects such as this. He reconciled with his father shortly before his death, complying with his dying wish to reconvert to Christianity. However, he buried his father alone as his brothers still do not speak to him for marrying a woman from another ethnic group.
This is a truly tragic tale of a vulnerable player so badly exploited by others purely driven by greed. Rarely has a young player shown so much talent and he should have gone on to a career that reflected this. However, throughout his life and his career, he was betrayed by those closest to him. Tragedy in the death of his two children has scarred him deeply and his desire for the game of football seems to have dwindled in recent years. It is important to remember that he is only 35 years old today – an age at which many footballers are still playing at the highest levels. However, his school gives young children a hope for the future, providing the chance that he never had. In his own words, “It all comes to education, that’s why I decided to use my money for this school. This school makes me happy.” And happiness is one thing that has not come easily to Nii Lamptey. We should all be happy that he has found a way to put the demons of his life behind him.
His childhood was not a happy one. He was neglected and horribly abused by both of his parents, resorting to sleeping under cars and in street kiosks at time to avoid being beating at home. He cannot even remember the name of his school and turned to football as a refuge from his life at home. However, when his father discovered his talent, he turned up to games simply to shout abuse at him. Even today, he still has scars on his body where his father burned him with cigarettes and lashed him with his belt. He was also beaten by his mother until she left, following a divorce when he was only 8. Soon after, his father remarried and he was kicked out of the family house, and offered the chance to stay with a Muslim football club, on the condition he converted to Islam. He was happy to do so to escape the abuse at home.
At the age of only 14, he played in the U16 World Cup in Scotland, and used the small amount of money from this to flee Ghana, moving to Belgium. He told nobody about this until he was already there. However, the Ghanaian FA wanted to build their team around him, and following a youth tournament, confiscated his passport to prevent him from returning to Belgium. To escape, he hid in the back of a taxi, illegally crossing three international borders until he reached Nigeria, where he met the agent of the Nigerian captain, Stephen Keshi – one of the few people Lamptey ever trusted. He flew to Belgium on a fake passport, posing as Keshi’s son, but on his arrival, nobody at Anderlecht, where Keshi played, believed it was the real Nii Lamptey. He was sent to train with the older boys as a test, and within moments, they were convinced they had the real thing. He signed a 5-year contract at the age of 16 for the club, making his debut soon after, following a change in the rules by the Belgian FA to allow him to appear at such a young age.
He had an excellent first two seasons for Anderlecht, scoring nine goals in 30 appearances, before being transferred to PSV. In his only season there, he hit ten goals in 22 games, leading the scoring charts for the club. However, his tragic decline had already begun. He could not read or write, or even express himself in English, and he was horrifically exploited by football’s money men. He was tricked into signing an exclusive deal with an Italian agent, Antonio Caliendo, which gave Caliendo the player’s registration, not his club. As a result, it was in Caliendo’s interest to drum up the highest transfer fees possibly for Lamptey, regardless of the effect on his career.
He was sold to Aston Villa the following year, where he was taken in by Ron Atkinson, who even arranged for the signing-on fee to be paid directly to Lamptey, and not through his agent. Lamptey admitted that his agent hadn’t even told him that there was a signing-on fee. However, after a stunning debut goal, he struggled and when Atkinson left for Coventry, he followed him there.
More disappointment was to follow for Lamptey in 1996 when he was sent off for Ghana in their semi-final defeat in the African Nations Cup against South Africa. He played in one further friendly for Ghana after this, but never played again for his country – a fact that still hurts today. “It was taken from me. It is really, really painful. Sometimes I’ll be in my room and just cry.” All this seems so long ago, but it really hits home when you consider that he would only have been 33 when Ghana hosted the African Nations Cup in 2008 – a tournament he may have led his country out at if things had been different. He admitted that he could not bear to even go to the stadium to watch the games – rather he had to watch them alone at home.
In 1997, he moved to Boca Juniors, hoping to follow in the footsteps of his idol – the legendary Diego Maradona – where due to foreigner rules, he was loaned out to rival Argentinean club Union Santa Fe. However, tragedy struck when his son was taken ill and the whole family moved to a Buenos Aires hotel to be closer to him. After almost three months in intensive care, he passed away. This was a huge personal blow for Lamptey, which was made worse when Ghanaian authorities refused to let him bury his son in Ghana. This episode was sadly mirrored three years later when he lost another child to the same lung disease, whilst playing in Germany.
Thirteen clubs in only 16 years begins to give us an indication of the lack of any form of continuity over the course of his career. When you consider that at the age of 19, he was World Champion and Golden Ball winner at the 1991 U17 World Cup in Italy, Olympic Bronze medallist in 1992 and had a runner-up medal in the 1993 U20 World Cup, whilst being linked with the likes of Real Madrid; it seems a tragic waste of potential.
One thing that seems to torture him more than anything is his lack of education. “I have been through hell, through so much pain. If I could write a book about it, it would be something else, I tell you. But how can I do that, when I can’t even write a letter,” he said in a 2008 interview. He has now set up a junior school in Ghana, which also now has close links to a local football academy, to try and give the children of Accra the opportunity that he never had. The school now has over 400 students, and he has now given up on his football career to focus on projects such as this. He reconciled with his father shortly before his death, complying with his dying wish to reconvert to Christianity. However, he buried his father alone as his brothers still do not speak to him for marrying a woman from another ethnic group.
This is a truly tragic tale of a vulnerable player so badly exploited by others purely driven by greed. Rarely has a young player shown so much talent and he should have gone on to a career that reflected this. However, throughout his life and his career, he was betrayed by those closest to him. Tragedy in the death of his two children has scarred him deeply and his desire for the game of football seems to have dwindled in recent years. It is important to remember that he is only 35 years old today – an age at which many footballers are still playing at the highest levels. However, his school gives young children a hope for the future, providing the chance that he never had. In his own words, “It all comes to education, that’s why I decided to use my money for this school. This school makes me happy.” And happiness is one thing that has not come easily to Nii Lamptey. We should all be happy that he has found a way to put the demons of his life behind him.
Monday 5 April 2010
Nowhere to Hide
Two minutes and one second into the ninth round, the towel was thrown in and David Haye had made his first successful defence of his WBA Heavyweight title. Although his opponent, John Ruiz, was never expected to win this fight, Haye will have been particularly happy with the stoppage that he had promised. With this fight out of the way, the hopes for a unification bout with one of the formidable Klitschko brothers, Vitali or Wladimir, intensifies.
John Ruiz, the mandatory challenger for Haye’s title, is a former 2-time heavyweight champion, and has been in the ring with some of the best heavyweights in recent times – a trio of matches with Evander Holyfield, Roy Jones Jr., Hasim Rahman, twice against Nikolay Valuev and Ruslan Chagaev. He had only been stopped once previously in 54 fights – 14 years ago against David Tua – so the nature of the victory was particularly pleasing. However, he hopes this is only the beginning.
Talks are expected to commence within the week to try and arrange the fight that people want to see. Haye v Klitschko. However, despite rumours of a £10m+ deal for each fighter, it is not as easy as it seems. It is believed that Haye wants to face the younger brother, Wladimir, first, this autumn in front of a packed-out Wembley Stadium. However, the Klitschkos would prefer the fight to be staged in their adopted country of Germany. A fight between the two had been arranged last year, but Haye was forced to pull out with a back injury sustained during his training camp. There are other complications in the deal though.
Haye is contractually obliged to give the Russian giant, Nikolay Valuev, whom he beat last year to win the title, a rematch. If Valuev chooses to cash in this clause, Haye will have to fight him. However, there are hopes that the two sides can reach an agreement to suspend this clause, allowing Haye to chase the Klitschkos. Another complication is that Wladimir Klitschko must face the mandatory challenger for his title, Aleksandr Povetkin. There are hopes that a deal can be arranged so that the winner of a possible Haye v Wladimir fight would go on to defend the title against Povetkin, before a possible unification bout against the elder brother, Vitali, were Haye to win both of these fights.
The feud between the brothers and David Haye has become very personal, ever since Haye set his sights on the heavyweight division. It is clear that neither side likes the other. Ahead of his fight with Valuev, Haye caused uproar by wearing a controversial t-shirt depicted the severed heads of the Klitschko brothers. Despite demands for an apology, none has been forthcoming. Wladimir has challenged Haye to live up to his words, saying “action speaks louder than words, and right now, he is a loser because he bitched out twice – me and then Vitali.” Following his victory against Ruiz, Haye claimed that any of the shots he had landed with that night would have knocked out the brothers.
However, it is no forgone conclusion that Haye would be able to beat either of the brothers. It is no coincidence that they have ruled the division for many years, and it would be an enormous step-up in class for Haye. They are both more powerful, stronger and athletic, have greater reach and more technical ability than any fighters he has faced before. Whilst they are not necessarily the most exciting fighters, there is no denying that they are technically very talented. Haye would have to up his game if he were to have any chance. He was hurt on occasions by Ruiz – his low left hand in defence is an area that would have to be rectified, otherwise he would be knocked out by either of the brothers.
Having said this though, David Haye is exactly what the former flagship division needed. He is brash and cocky, he is one of the most charismatic heavyweight fighters since the great Muhammad Ali, he promises thrilling bouts, and delivers. However, American interest in the division is still lacking, given that neither Haye, nor Wladimir’s previous bout were shown on television there. A fight such as this, given the personal nature of the backstory, would have the potential to relight the division. One hopes that it happens, but nothing can be guaranteed in the complicated world of boxing.
John Ruiz, the mandatory challenger for Haye’s title, is a former 2-time heavyweight champion, and has been in the ring with some of the best heavyweights in recent times – a trio of matches with Evander Holyfield, Roy Jones Jr., Hasim Rahman, twice against Nikolay Valuev and Ruslan Chagaev. He had only been stopped once previously in 54 fights – 14 years ago against David Tua – so the nature of the victory was particularly pleasing. However, he hopes this is only the beginning.
Talks are expected to commence within the week to try and arrange the fight that people want to see. Haye v Klitschko. However, despite rumours of a £10m+ deal for each fighter, it is not as easy as it seems. It is believed that Haye wants to face the younger brother, Wladimir, first, this autumn in front of a packed-out Wembley Stadium. However, the Klitschkos would prefer the fight to be staged in their adopted country of Germany. A fight between the two had been arranged last year, but Haye was forced to pull out with a back injury sustained during his training camp. There are other complications in the deal though.
Haye is contractually obliged to give the Russian giant, Nikolay Valuev, whom he beat last year to win the title, a rematch. If Valuev chooses to cash in this clause, Haye will have to fight him. However, there are hopes that the two sides can reach an agreement to suspend this clause, allowing Haye to chase the Klitschkos. Another complication is that Wladimir Klitschko must face the mandatory challenger for his title, Aleksandr Povetkin. There are hopes that a deal can be arranged so that the winner of a possible Haye v Wladimir fight would go on to defend the title against Povetkin, before a possible unification bout against the elder brother, Vitali, were Haye to win both of these fights.
The feud between the brothers and David Haye has become very personal, ever since Haye set his sights on the heavyweight division. It is clear that neither side likes the other. Ahead of his fight with Valuev, Haye caused uproar by wearing a controversial t-shirt depicted the severed heads of the Klitschko brothers. Despite demands for an apology, none has been forthcoming. Wladimir has challenged Haye to live up to his words, saying “action speaks louder than words, and right now, he is a loser because he bitched out twice – me and then Vitali.” Following his victory against Ruiz, Haye claimed that any of the shots he had landed with that night would have knocked out the brothers.
However, it is no forgone conclusion that Haye would be able to beat either of the brothers. It is no coincidence that they have ruled the division for many years, and it would be an enormous step-up in class for Haye. They are both more powerful, stronger and athletic, have greater reach and more technical ability than any fighters he has faced before. Whilst they are not necessarily the most exciting fighters, there is no denying that they are technically very talented. Haye would have to up his game if he were to have any chance. He was hurt on occasions by Ruiz – his low left hand in defence is an area that would have to be rectified, otherwise he would be knocked out by either of the brothers.
Having said this though, David Haye is exactly what the former flagship division needed. He is brash and cocky, he is one of the most charismatic heavyweight fighters since the great Muhammad Ali, he promises thrilling bouts, and delivers. However, American interest in the division is still lacking, given that neither Haye, nor Wladimir’s previous bout were shown on television there. A fight such as this, given the personal nature of the backstory, would have the potential to relight the division. One hopes that it happens, but nothing can be guaranteed in the complicated world of boxing.
Bank Holiday Betting Tips
Swindon Town v Tranmere Rovers
A good run of form recently has found Swindon Town moving into the automatic promotion places – the highlight being a 3-0 victory away to Leeds last weekend. The form of Billy Paynter will make him difficult to stop.
Tranmere are fighting to avoid relegation, lying in 20th position in League 1, and battling hard. They should eventually get the points to save themselves, but not in this game.
As I said, Tranmere should rack up enough points to stay in the division, but they shouldn’t get anything from a strong Swindon team fighting for automatic promotion.
Bet: Swindon to win @ 1.53
Norwich v Stockport
Norwich have pulled out a nine point lead at the top of the league, although suffered a shock defeat against Tranmere last weekend. However, they should easily have sufficient quality to see off Stockport, and will be looking to take out some of their frustrations on them.
Stockport are long-since doomed to relegation, with only 5 wins in their 39 games this season and a goal difference of -42. They were hammered 5-0 in their last away game against Millwall, and I can see another big defeat coming up for the dying side.
Norwich should be looking to put a few past this poor Stockport side and the handicap is one to look closely at.
Bet: Norwich -1.5AH @ 1.64
Luton Town v Grays Athletic
Luton are the form team in the Blue Square Premier Division right now, having won at league-leaders Stevenage at the weekend, closing the gap to two points. Before that, 18 goals in 3 games with only 1 conceded suggest they are scoring for fun.
Grays are already relegated and adrift at the bottom of the table. Winless away from home so far this season, having conceded 43 goals in 19 games, it seems inconceivable that they will get anything from this game.
Whether Luton win is not the question – it is simply a matter of how many they win by. They have been in stunning form recently, but the safest option is to take them to win with a -1 handicap
Bet: Luton to win (-1 handicap) @ 1.4
Newcastle United v Sheffield United
Newcastle can seal their return to the Premiership with victory at St James Park today. They have been the best side in the division all season, and the likes of Andy Carroll, Peter Lovenkrands and Kevin Nolan have shown themselves to be too good for this level. The opportunity to celebrate promotion in style in front of their own fans will be a huge incentive for the team.
Sheffield United lie in 10th place and, realistically, have little to play for. They have had a terrible season with injuries, hampering any chance of pushing for the playoffs. Sometimes the lack of pressure allows the players to play a more expansive game, but against a team with the quality and motivation that Newcastle possesses, it will be difficult for them.
Newcastle will want to celebrate promotion in front of their own fans and victory against a Sheffield United team with little to play for should be likely.
Bet: Newcastle United @ 1.44
A good run of form recently has found Swindon Town moving into the automatic promotion places – the highlight being a 3-0 victory away to Leeds last weekend. The form of Billy Paynter will make him difficult to stop.
Tranmere are fighting to avoid relegation, lying in 20th position in League 1, and battling hard. They should eventually get the points to save themselves, but not in this game.
As I said, Tranmere should rack up enough points to stay in the division, but they shouldn’t get anything from a strong Swindon team fighting for automatic promotion.
Bet: Swindon to win @ 1.53
Norwich v Stockport
Norwich have pulled out a nine point lead at the top of the league, although suffered a shock defeat against Tranmere last weekend. However, they should easily have sufficient quality to see off Stockport, and will be looking to take out some of their frustrations on them.
Stockport are long-since doomed to relegation, with only 5 wins in their 39 games this season and a goal difference of -42. They were hammered 5-0 in their last away game against Millwall, and I can see another big defeat coming up for the dying side.
Norwich should be looking to put a few past this poor Stockport side and the handicap is one to look closely at.
Bet: Norwich -1.5AH @ 1.64
Luton Town v Grays Athletic
Luton are the form team in the Blue Square Premier Division right now, having won at league-leaders Stevenage at the weekend, closing the gap to two points. Before that, 18 goals in 3 games with only 1 conceded suggest they are scoring for fun.
Grays are already relegated and adrift at the bottom of the table. Winless away from home so far this season, having conceded 43 goals in 19 games, it seems inconceivable that they will get anything from this game.
Whether Luton win is not the question – it is simply a matter of how many they win by. They have been in stunning form recently, but the safest option is to take them to win with a -1 handicap
Bet: Luton to win (-1 handicap) @ 1.4
Newcastle United v Sheffield United
Newcastle can seal their return to the Premiership with victory at St James Park today. They have been the best side in the division all season, and the likes of Andy Carroll, Peter Lovenkrands and Kevin Nolan have shown themselves to be too good for this level. The opportunity to celebrate promotion in style in front of their own fans will be a huge incentive for the team.
Sheffield United lie in 10th place and, realistically, have little to play for. They have had a terrible season with injuries, hampering any chance of pushing for the playoffs. Sometimes the lack of pressure allows the players to play a more expansive game, but against a team with the quality and motivation that Newcastle possesses, it will be difficult for them.
Newcastle will want to celebrate promotion in front of their own fans and victory against a Sheffield United team with little to play for should be likely.
Bet: Newcastle United @ 1.44