Wednesday 27 October 2010

Gerard Houllier - One Month In

Trying to follow in the footsteps of Martin O’Neill has proved a difficult task for Gerard Houllier. O'Neill led Leicester to the top half of the Premiership and into Europe, he won the treble with Celtic, as well as reaching the UEFA Cup final; additionally, he led Aston Villa to three consecutive sixth-place finishes, as well as the Carling Cup final.


It is difficult to argue that O'Neill did not achieve impressive things at his previous clubs, however, when he walked out on Aston Villa, only days before the season started, he left an enormous challenge for his successor, Gerard Houllier.

Before we look at how Houllier has coped, it is interesting to look at previous successors to Martin O’Neill. O’Neill has a gift of being able to get the most out of a certain type of player. However, he often seems unable to motivate players with a different style or mentality than his own.

We have seen this act previously. In the years after he left Celtic, few doubted that he had done a wonderful job, but worries developed that he had left them with an aging squad with big contracts that struggled to perform under a new manager. Leicester had similar problems with players seemingly unable to replicate their form under O’Neill for the new manager.


Even now, we appear to be seeing the same pattern forming at Aston Villa under Gerard Houllier. Certain players, such as Richard Dunne and John Carew, have been poor this season without Martin O’Neill, as such, questions are being raised about their futures. Conversely, Houllier seems to have resurrected the likes of Nigel Reo-Coker and Emile Heskey, who have gone from bench players last season to key players so far this year.

From this evidence, we can see that attempting to follow O’Neill can often be a difficult task.

Thus far, Houllier has had an average start. He has hardly got the team firing on all cylinders, but it is far from a poor start, as he has also been unlucky with injuries. In the short period since he took over there has been a spate of injuries, including Marc Albrighton, Luke Young, Emile Heskey and Gabriel Agbonlahor.

Houllier has also been rocked by the news that captain Stiliyan Petrov will miss at least two months.

However, in this short spell, it is clear that he is trying to change the style of football Aston Villa play. Under Martin O’Neill their game was based around quick counterattacks when possible, and more of a long-ball game in general. It is already noticeable that Houllier is encouraging the side to play with a more measured build-up by utilizing more passing of the ball on the ground.

Whilst the fans like to see this approach, it is difficult to implement it immediately. He still has O’Neill’s squad, and he will still be learning about his players. He did not have a pre-season to work with the players to push his ideas. Therefore, it seems natural to give him some time before judging too much.

Houllier has also had to deal with the loss of last season’s player of the year, James Milner, who has not really been replaced. Stephen Ireland joined as part of the deal, but he is a different type of player, and has barely played in the Premiership for over a year. Virtually any club would be affected by the loss of their top star. Indeed, it is possible to argue that Gareth Barry has not really been replaced, either.


The other worry that is emerging from Villa Park concerns the fitness of the players.

Houllier and his new fitness coach, Robert Duverne, have been running double fitness sessions since the players are apparently not fit enough. It was a question that had been raised over the past few seasons with Villa’s customary late-season slump, and raises questions of whether O’Neill was focusing adequately on this aspect of training.

It would be surprising if some new players were not brought in during the January transfer window. Houllier will have had the opportunity to assess and get to know his squad and build opinions on which areas need strengthening. The obvious position is at striker. John Carew appears to be on a rapid decline—he was inconsistent at the best of times, and his work-rate is simply appalling this season. Further, Emile Heskey has been playing well, but is never going to guarantee many goals. Gabriel Agbonlahor has missed virtually the entire season thus far through injury. Additionally, Nathan Delfouneso and Andreas Weimann are good prospects for the future, but unlikely to make an immediate impact now.

This is hardly a new concern—it was a problem throughout O’Neill’s reign, and even before that. Indeed, no Villa striker has scored 20 goals in all competitions since Juan Pablo Angel in 2003-04, and no striker has scored 20 league goals since the early ‘80s. Villa have regularly been accused of creating chances, but having no natural goal-scorer to convert them.


Next weekend looks set to be a big one for Gerard Houllier. Whilst many fans are happy to be patient for a while until he has a chance to develop his own squad, few would forgive him if Villa were to lose the home derby with Birmingham. After Birmingham went unbeaten for the first six Premiership derbies between the two, bragging rights have been with Villa in recent years after six consecutive wins against the Blues.

Neither side is in particularly great form.

Birmingham secured a much-needed win last weekend against Blackpool, but it was only their second win of the season following six games without one. Aston Villa have only one win in their last six games in the league in the derby with Wolves. However, with home games against Birmingham and Blackpool, and trips to Fulham in their next three games, they hope to start getting some points on the board.


So whilst it has not been a wonderful start for Gerard Houllier, it is far too early to draw firm judgments. He is working with an O’Neill team, having not had a preseason to press his own input onto the team. It appears that this is likely to be a season of transition. It would be surprising not to see a number of transfers, both in and out, in both January and next summer, as Houllier moves out some of the traditionally "O’Neill-type" players and replaces them with his type.

A sixth-place finish this season would be an excellent achievement. An upper mid-table finish is far more likely, hoping to press on again next season. However, Houllier needs to be given time. Many managers in the past have struggled to succeed O’Neill, but any new manager must be judged once he has had an opportunity to build his own team.

Saturday 16 October 2010

Saturday Betting Tips


FOOTBALL

Manchester United v West Brom

Despite concerns over their performances away from home, they have been impressive at home in the league, winning all three of their games, scoring three in each. Wayne Rooney’s form is still a concern, but Berbatov and Nani are in top form, and both Michael Owen and Javier Hernandez are capable of grabbing goals if necessary. Their defence is boosted by the return of Rio Ferdinand, and they will fancy themselves to keep a clean sheet here.

West Brom have been the surprise team of this season, and find themselves sitting in sixth place. They stunned everyone by winning at the Emirates a few weeks ago, but the loss of Peter Odemwingie for the game today is a huge blow for them. The likes of Bednar, Moore and Fortune are simply not good enough to impress regularly in this division.

United know they need to continue winning at home whilst they search to find some form away from Old Trafford. This should be a comfortable victory against a side missing their main goal threat.

Bet: Manchester United -1.5AH @ 1.83 (7/10)

Fulham v Tottenham


Fulham have been the draw specialists so far this season, drawing six of their first seven games thus far. They will be boosted by the return of Mousa Dembele, but are still without the likes of Zamora, Duff, Senderos and Andrew Johnson.

Tottenham still have injury concerns of their own, with Aaron Lennon joining Dawson, King, Defoe, Gallas, Kaboul and O’Hara on the injury list. However, in Rafael Van der Vaart, they have one of the most in-form players in the Premiership at the moment.

This should be a tight game and Spurs may have one eye on the Champions League match against Inter next week. 1-1 has been the most popular result in the league so far this season, and I can see this being another close draw.

Bet: Draw @ 3.3 (5/10)

Portsmouth v Watford

Portsmouth have improved since the arrivals of Dave Kitson and Liam Lawrence. 11 goals in their last 3 games have lifted them out of the relegation places, and they will be looking to keep the decent run going.

Watford are unbeaten away from home, and are scoring plenty of goals. 3 at Norwich, 2 at Bristol City and 6 at Millwall have seen them become the second highest scorers in the division. They are boosted by the fact that Marvin Sordell has been passed fit – his six goals have been crucial for them.

Both sides are full of goals at the moment, and I expect to see a high-scoring game here.

Bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.93 (5/10)

Port Vale v Gillingham


Port Vale sit top of the table, but have faltered recently with a last-gasp defeat to Oxford, followed by a draw with bottom side Hereford. Micky Adams has announced that he will be making a few changes, as he suggests some of the players are cracking under the pressure of being the league leaders. Even so, they have won four on the trot at home.

If Gillingham fail to win today, they will break a club record of 32 games without an away win. Hessenthaler has tried mixing things up, but his decision to take the team on the long trip to the league leaders on the morning of the game is a bit strange. Both strikers are out injured and they have conceded 13 goals in their last 3 away games.

Port Vale should bounce back to winning ways today as the Gillingham away jinx continues.

Bet: Port Vale to win @ 1.83 (5/10)

Mainz v Hamburg


Mainz have been the surprise package of Europe this season, having won their opening seven games in only their second season in the top division. A win today will break the record for the best start of any team in the Bundesliga. Under Thomas Tuchel, the likes of Lewis Holtby, Adam Szalai and Andre Schurrle have been ripping up the division.

Hamburg have ten players out injured for this game, including important players like Elia, Jarolim and Chupo-Moting. With only one win in their last five games, and only two wins in their last nine away games, this will be a huge challenge for Hamburg.

All the focus will be on whether Mainz can continue their record run, and whilst it will undoubtedly come to an end soon, I can’t see it being today.

Bet: Mainz to win @ 2.3 (6/10)

Barcelona v Valencia


David Villa picked up an injury on international duty and is likely to miss the game with his former club. If Xavi is still not fit to play, Barcelona are missing two very important players for them. Barca have not quite got going at home this season, having lost to Hercules, scraped a win against Sporting Gijon and drew with the notoriously poor travellers, Mallorca. They seem to rely too much on Messi to single-handedly win them games at the moment, and whilst he is a quality player, he cannot do it every single week.

Valencia have astounded the critics thus far, and are seemingly not noticing the losses of David Villa, David Silva and Carlos Marchena. Aduriz has been excellent, and they are boosted by the return of Pablo Hernandez from injury. They haven’t won at the Nou Camp since 2003, and the last three visits have resulted in 3-0, 4-0 and 6-0 defeats.

Barcelona have been struggling without Xavi, and the loss of Villa will harm them as well. Valencia are in excellent form, and will fancy their chances of an upset.

Bet: Valencia DNB @ 7 (3/10)

RUGBY UNION

Aironi Rugby v Bath


Aironi Rugby lie bottom of the Magners League, and lost their first pool game 30-6 away to Ulster. Whilst they are still searching for a home win this season, they have managed to keep the matches fairly tight, going down 9-10 to Edinburgh and 15-22 to Ulster.

After losing at home to Biarritz in their first pool game, this is a must win game now for Bath. The pressure is on for the underperforming Aviva Premiership side. Tom Biggs and Ben Williams replace Matt Carraro and Shontayne Hape in the back line as they look to change their recent fortunes.

Whilst Bath should win this, I would fancy Aironi to keep it relatively tight, even if they are unable to do enough to snatch an unlikely victory.

Bet: Aironi Rugby +11.5 @ 1.80 (6/10)

Racing Metro v Clermont Auvergne


Racing Metro sit top of the Top 14 in France, and battled bravely at Leicester before losing 38-22. They have won 4 out of 4 at home domestically, and in Steyn, Hernandez, Fall, Masi amongst others, they have plenty of quality. They beat Clermont 28-17 earlier in the season.

Clermont have lost 3 out of 4 away from home this season domestically, although secured a win in their opening pool game at home to Saracens. It will be difficult for them against a strong Racing Metro outfit.

Whilst both sides have injury concerns, it would be a surprise if Racing Metro do not win this, and I would fancy them to cover the handicap.

Bet: Racing Metro -6 @ 1.91 (5/10)

Sunday 10 October 2010

The Problem with Coaching in England

Since the World Cup, the issue of the lack of quality of players coming through the youth systems in England has been under scrutiny. Whilst there are the odd technically gifted players, the majority base their game around superior athleticism and strength, rather than ability with the football. It has raised the question of whether England is producing athletes that play football, rather than footballers.

There is a major problem with the youth system in this country. However, it is not just at youth level where there are issues. The entire coaching structure from grassroots, through the youth system, right to the very top level of the Premiership has major flaws, and needs to urgently be addressed if England are to give themselves any hope of returning to the pinnacle of world football in the future. The next World Cup in Brazil will almost certainly come too soon, and regrettably, the possibility of the 2018 World Cup in England may even come before a new generation, talented enough to challenge, emerges.

The old adage is that there is a choice that has to be made between quality and quantity. However, in England, with regards to coaching, there is a lack of either. No English manager has ever won the Premiership since its inception. Indeed, only two English managers have won the title in the past 25 years – Howard Wilkinson and Howard Kendall.

A second worrying statistic for English coaches and managers is that more Israeli managers have managed a team in the group stages of the Champions League than English managers have. Ray Harford in 1995 was the first as Blackburn manager, followed by Phil Thompson (whilst Gerard Houllier was recovering from heart surgery), Sir Bobby Robson and Harry Redknapp.

If we look at the actual figures, there are 2,769 English coaches that hold either the UEFA B, A or Pro Coaching Licence – the highest coaching courses available. If we break this down, we find 1,759 coaches with the UEFA B Licence, 895 with the A-Licence and only 115 with the UEFA Pro Licence. When you consider that, in theory, a manager needs the UEFA Pro Licence to work in the Premiership, it means there are only 115 English coaches who could manage in the top flight of English football. Indeed, a significant proportion of these have no ambition to manage, but are happy coaching. This is a worrying figure.

If we compare these figures with our European rivals, it shows a major difference between the availability of quality coaching. Spain have 23,995 coaches holding a UEFA licence, 2,140 of which hold the Pro Licence – there are almost as many Pro Licence holders in Spain as there are UEFA qualified coaches of any level in England. Germany has 34,970 UEFA licensed coaches, France has 17,588 and Italy has 29,420. Even the Czech Republic has more coaches with the A or Pro Licence than England does.

These statistics are a little worrying. However, even more concerning is that England has more registered players than all the other European countries with the exception of Germany. In other words, England has more players and fewer coaches. England has 1 UEFA Licensed coach for every 812 registered players. Spain has 1 UEFA Licensed coach for every 17 players. Even Greece has 1 UEFA Licensed coach for every 135 players. Indeed, at the current rate of progress, it will take England over 120 years to even match Spain’s current number of Pro Licensed coaches.

Qualifications are clearly not the be all and end all of coaching ability. However, in order to be a manager in any top league in Europe, a manager must hold the UEFA Pro Licence. England is a slight exception here. Whilst it is supposedly a requirement, the Premiership has made a number of exceptions over the past few years. Gareth Southgate, Paul Ince and Glenn Roeder are all managers who have been given special dispensation to manage in the Premiership without this qualification. Unsurprisingly, none of them had much success.

So what exactly is the UEFA Pro Licence? It follows on from the UEFA A Licence, which focuses on training and coaching methods. However, the Pro Licence is more based on the managerial side of the game. It involves a series of modules on handling top-class players, using the latest technology, analysing opponents’ strengths and weaknesses, and dealing with players’ problems both on and off the pitch. An important part of it is a study visit to a major European club, often Real Madrid, AC Milan or Inter Milan, to get a structural and technical overview of the club.

Once a future manager has acquired the necessary qualifications, there is one further ingredient that should be gained before making the first step into the managerial hot seat. No amount of classroom teaching can replace actual experience. It is no surprise that the vast majority of Europe’s top managers went through periods during the early stages of their careers where they worked with youth teams or as assistant managers.

Let us take a couple of examples. Guus Hiddink is widely regarded as one of the most respected and successful coaches in football. He spent a number of years early on in his career working as assistant manager at both De Graafschap and PSV. Similarly, Louis Van Gaal spent five years as assistant at Ajax, learning under the vastly experienced Leo Beenhakker. Rafa Benitez, Marcello Lippi and Giovanni Trapattoni all began their careers with extended periods coaching in the youth team of Real Madrid, Sampdoria and AC Milan respectively.

Each of these has gained the necessary qualification and background knowledge, then followed it up with spell learning and gaining the experience working at big clubs under talented managers. If we compare this to recent managerial appointments in England, where we see the likes of Roy Keane, Paul Ince and Alan Shearer given the chance purely based on their playing reputations, it is unsurprising that they do not have the ability to succeed instantly. On the continent, we see former big-names, such as Dennis Bergkamp, undergoing an apprenticeship with the youth teams at Ajax, rather than moving straight into management.

There is an interesting different in outlook between Italy and England regarding managers getting sacked. In England, if a manager gets sacked from his job, he is regarded as a failure and his past failings will permanently be associated with him when he looks for future jobs, particularly amongst the fans. However, in Italy, it is not necessarily viewed as failure – rather it is often seen as gaining valuable experience that will stand him, and his future clubs, in better standing next time he gets an opportunity.

Despite all of this, English managers and coaches need opportunities to test themselves once they have gained the qualifications and experience. The argument that there are too many foreign managers in the Premiership is valid. Compared with other major European leagues, there are more foreign managers, particularly at the top clubs. There are only seven English managers in the Premiership, and only two of those managed teams that finished in the top half last season – Harry Redknapp and Sam Allardyce.

If we again compare this with elsewhere on the continent, we find that 15 out of 20 managers in La Liga are Spanish, and Manuel Pellegrini of Real Madrid was the only foreign coach to finish in the top half of the table. Similarly, in Germany, 15 out of 18 managers were German, with seven German coaches finishing in the top half. Italy has an even more impressive figure with only two foreign coaches amongst their 20 clubs.

This could suggest that there are fewer opportunities for prospective English managers than there are for their continental counterparts. Particularly amongst the very top teams, English managers struggle to find an opportunity. Chelsea have not had an English manager since Glenn Hoddle left back in 1996, having appointed eight consecutive foreign managers; Arsenal have not had an English manager since Don Howe in 1986, and Roy Hodgson is Liverpool’s first English manager in 12 years since Roy Evans left.

Even looking at the next tier of teams down, Manchester City are on their third new manager since the last Englishman, Stuart Pearce, was sacked; Aston Villa have had three non-English managers since Graham Taylor and John Gregory; Harry Redknapp at Tottenham follows three consecutive foreign managers.

There have been plenty of fairly sub-standard foreign managers that have been given the opportunity to manage in the Premiership at the expense of English manager. The likes of Jacques Santini, Christian Gross, Alain Perrin and Egil Olsen are hardly names that any Premiership club would be associated with now. It begs the question why clubs felt the need to bring in poor European managers rather than giving an opportunity to an up-and-coming English manager.

However, whilst it is possible to have some sympathy with the likes of Sam Allardyce, Alan Curbishley and Steve Bruce amongst other who claim they are overlooked due to their lack of trophies, whilst not being able to manage at clubs who are likely to win trophies, it raises another question. Why do English managers not venture abroad to get the opportunities?

After a poor period in charge of the national team, Steve McClaren headed to the continent to expand his horizons and look to rebuild his reputation. Two successful years at Twente, including one league title and reaching the Champions League qualifying stages, led to a move to German side, Wolfsburg. He now has experience working in different environments, and is one of the very few English managers still managing that can claim to have won a league title.

Few other English managers have made the move abroad. New Notts County manager, Craig Short, had a spell coaching and managing Ferencvaros in Hungary. Tony Adams is looking to resurrect his fledgling managerial career at Qabala in Azerbaijan, having spent time as an apprentice at Feyernoord. John Gregory is beginning his second season managing in the Israeli league.

However, the days when Englishmen were getting some of the top jobs in Europe are long gone. Terry Venables and Sir Bobby Robson both managed at Barcelona. Sir Bobby also had spells at PSV, Sporting and Porto. Roy Hodgson had spells at Inter Milan and Udinese amongst others. Even David Platt had a spell in charge of Serie A outfit, Sampdoria.

Clearly, English managers are not going to walk into any of these top jobs. However, Steve McClaren is proving a shining light as to what can be achieved if they take the risk. A move to one of the smaller European leagues – Holland, Belgium, Portugal amongst others – would potentially provide the opportunity to challenge for major domestic trophies and provide the chance to experience Champions League football.

However, it is not just the fault of managers. The English FA has hardly provided a great deal of help for prospective managers. The PFA has launched its own coaching department to try to turn today’s players into tomorrow’s coaches after becoming frustrated over the lack of leadership from the football authorities. The LMA was forced to turn to the corporate world for funding for support and training programmes for young coaches after recent proposals were rejected by the FA.

In Italy, managers are trained in an institution created solely for the purpose of developing new managers. Even in Australia, the Australian FA are investing in sending groups of coaches to Barcelona for a period of between six and twelve months to learn the methodology and philosophy behind the club. There are hopes that the new National Football Centre in Burton will be the facility where new coaches and managers can get the training they require, but this is still long behind schedule.

However, even if we can sort out the problem with a lack of coaches and managers, the development through the age groups of young footballers requires a complete overhaul.
In England, between the ages of 8 and 14, the crucial period for the development of potential future stars, academies average only two to four hours of contact time per week, and even demand that their players avoid playing for their own grassroots clubs or school teams as a precaution, whether that be against injury or conflicting training styles.

At the same age, in Germany, teams are training their youth players for around 18 hours a week. In Amsterdam, Ajax work with their players every single day. Indeed, in Brazil, over 3,000 young professionals live at their clubs, eating, sleeping, learning and training with their teammates every day of the week.

In France, the municipal government funds professional football coaches to work with all the junior clubs in their local area, enabling even those who are not part of academies to gain access to qualified coaching. In Spain, every town and village has a centrally-funded deportivo where young people can play football, basketball, tennis and volleyball under the supervision of highly trained coaches.

Contrast this with the situation in England where many local clubs are run by enthusiastic, but untrained parents and friends. Here, winning is everything, even at the expense of the children learning to play properly and having fun. It is hardly surprising that the technical development of the players is not provided.

However, this is not to say that schemes are not being set up to try to counter this problem. Watford’s youth academy under Nick Cox has become the envy of clubs throughout Europe, and has been visited by representatives of almost every Premiership club, as well as others from as far away as Valencia. Indeed, it received special praise from visitors from Ajax’s celebrated youth system for achieving even greater coaching time with the kids than they achieve.

They have integrated their academy players into a local school run by one of the club’s directors. This has the double bonus of securing greater time with the children, whilst saving on costs. As Nick Cox explains, “We pick the children up at around 7am and they then do all the normal subjects but also have scheduled coaching throughout the day – at times when they are fresh – then we drop them home at 7pm. We get to do about 15 hours of football with them a week, up to three times more than most other clubs in this country.”

Another key area that is being focussed on is the idea of ‘cross-training.’ In the Midlands, rival clubs, Aston Villa, Birmingham City and West Brom have been worked together by training their 10- to 14-year olds together, exposing the children to a wider range of playing and coaching talent.

Once again, Watford have taken this one step further. The school not only caters for youth footballers, but also gifted young gymnasts, dancers, cricketers amongst others. By mixing sessions with these other groups and coaches, it provides a new outlook on certain aspects of training. For example, stretching sessions have been run in conjunction with the ballet dancers and gymnasts. As one of the young footballers explained, they were sceptical to begin with, but have discovered that it has improved their strength and flexibility immeasurably.

Watford are beginning to see the first generation of these children making a mark. They have reached the quarter-finals of the FA Youth Cup in each of the past two seasons, beating Liverpool before losing to eventual winners Chelsea last season. The crucial point is that, on average, their players all grew up only 12 miles away from Vicarage Road. In contrast, the Chelsea side that beat them contained six foreign players, all of whom had been brought over specially to join the Chelsea academy.

Whilst Watford is an isolated project at the moment, it helps to lay the foundations for future imitations and improvements that could be carried out by other clubs. However, this project as well as virtually all others that could be conceived will rely on the availability of quality coaches. Without them, no matter how good the theory behind the scheme is, it will struggle to succeed.

Quality coaches and managers are at a premium in the English game today, and England is lagging far behind its continental rivals. The FA need to start to implement new schemes to attract new coaches to embark in the courses that will bring them up to UEFA qualified levels, whilst encouraging the existing coaches and managers to take advantage of new opportunities, potentially abroad, to help their development and give them the chance to win trophies and experience managing at the top level of European competition.

If we have the coaches, good youth development can follow, and once again, England could start to produce the technically gifted players that can help to lead them back to the top levels of international competition once again. However, there is no quick fix – it will be a long path, but one that needs to be embarked upon with the utmost haste.

Thursday 7 October 2010

Euro 2012 Betting Tips


Montenegro v Switzerland

Montenegro sit on maximum points in Group G with two wins from two games and two clean sheets. In Milan Jovanovic and Marko Vucinic, they have two talented attackers, but are still without star player, Stevan Jovetic. Whilst they maintain a 100% winning record, the games with Wales was a very poor quality encounter, and Bulgaria are a team in disarray at the moment. With only 2 defeats in 13 home games, they are a difficult team to play against.

With Switzerland, you know what to expect. They will not score many, but will be difficult to break down. However, only 2 wins in 11 games recently has seen pressure mount on the national side, although one of those victories was against the world champions Spain. They tend to be fairly strong away from home and played well against England until being reduced to ten men.

The bookmakers seem to have overreacted to Montenegro’s start, and the Swiss will be a difficult proposition for them. In Xherdan Shaqiri, the Swiss have a potential match winner, although it is likely to be a low-scoring tight affair.

Bet: Switzerland DNB @ 2.0 (7/10)

Andorra v FYR Macedonia

Despite not winning, Andorra have been improving rapidly in recent times. Twenty-six straight defeats is hardly unexpected, but they have only lost by more than 2 goals at home twice in the last 10 games, against Ukraine and Latvia. During that time, they have also played Russia twice, Croatia and England. In their last match against the Republic of Ireland, they even managed to get on the score sheet, their first goal in six matches.

Macedonia have been poor recently, drawing at home with Armenia and an away draw with Malta. Their attack is weak at the moment, and the defence is suspect. Whilst they are favourites for this match, they have bad memories of this ground, having the record of being the last team that Andorra beat in international football, back in 2004.

Andorra should fancy themselves to keep this relatively tight, and may even fancy themselves to nick a goal. It will be difficult, but there is an outside chance of an upset here.

Bet: Andorra Double Chance @ 5 (2/10)
Bet: Andorra +2.5AH (7/10)

Germany v Turkey

Germany were the surprise package at the World Cup in South Africa, destroying teams with their pacy attacking football. They have started qualification with two wins, including hitting six past Azerbaijan. However, Bastian Schweinsteiger is out injured, which is a huge blow, as he was one of the star players at the World Cup, both in attack and defence. He will be replaced by Toni Kroos, who needs to play well.

Turkey have also started with two wins, following up a win in Kazakhstan with a victory over the Belgians. They will have huge support in Berlin, with as many as 30,000 Turks expected out of a crowd of 75k. They will be hoping to attack the Germans in the hopes of grabbing an early goal, particularly with a number of the German players having started the season poorly at club level.

The Germans are rightly favourites for this game, but the loss of their captain is a big blow. The excellent support for the Turks may also drive them to raise their level for this game. They have improved a lot under Guus Hiddink, who will fancy his team to test the Germans.

Bet: Turkey +1 @ 2.1 (5/10)

Republic of Ireland v Russia

After coming so close to beating the French, Ireland now believe it is time to qualify for a major tournament again. They have started solidly with two wins against Armenia and Andorra, but the Russians will be their first major test. The Irish don’t tend to concede too many as one might expect under Trapattoni, but scoring goals is also an issue. Only six of their last 17 games has contained more than 2 goals.

Russia were a surprising omission from the World Cup, after losing to Slovenia in the playoffs. After the departure of Guus Hiddink, they have struggled somewhat, losing at home to Slovakia in their last game. Roman Pavlyuchenko will miss this game and the Russians are the best travellers, having only won 1 of their last 4 away games, including draws with Hungary and Azerbaijan, as well as the defeat in Slovenia.

There are unlikely to be many goals in this one, but Ireland will fancy themselves to sneak a win, and put themselves in pole position for qualification for Euro 2012.

Bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.6 (5/10)
Bet: Ireland DNB @ 1.85 (6/10)
Powered by Blogger.