T20 Cricket - A Few Thoughts

James Faulkner's Hitting

During the strategic timeout in the Rising Pune Supergiants against Gujarat Lions, the pundits were discussing potential changes for the Gujarat Lions and, in particular, the option of James Faulkner. One of the benefits of Faulkner was supposedly that he is 'capable of hitting big shots in the middle order'.

While there are a number of areas that James Faulkner is strong in, big hitting is certainly not one of those. Indeed, of all the players that have scored at least 1000 runs in T20 cricket, James Faulkner actually requires the most balls per boundary hit. Faulkner is elite at avoiding dot balls and rotating the strike, but hitting boundaries is really not his strong point. Just as knowledge of exactly how some players play does not appear to be the strong point of certain pundits.

Keeping Wickets in Hand

We always hear commentators talking about how teams should not take risks early on in order to keep wickets in hand for later in the innings. However, how much does keeping wickets in hand actually help?

The chart shows the number of runs scored in the final 5 overs of a T20 innings based on the number of wickets that have fallen by the start of this period. As we can see, each extra wicket in hand is generally worth around an additional 2 runs during the final 5 overs, although this does drop off dramatically if you have lost most of your wickets, but this is hardly a surprise. In reality, it seems that conserving wickets at the expense of scoring runs earlier might not necessarily be the best plan.

Use of Jason Roy

There were a few raised eyebrows at Jason Roy being brought in way down the order at #6 for the Gujarat Lions against the Mumbai Indians. Whilst it is understandable having Dwayne Smith and Brendon McCullum opening the batting, particularly given their long history of opening together for the Chennai Super Kings, it was a strange decision to not bring him in at the fall of the opening wicket.

Jason Roy is a player that scores 45.0% of his runs from fours, whilst not necessarily being a big six hitter. This is one reason why he is a very strong player in the powerplay overs, where there are limited players allowed outside the circle, and he is able to pick the gaps well and pick up the fours. Outside of the powerplay, there are less gaps to find those boundaries. We can see in his stats that during the powerplay, he hits a four every 5.07 balls compared to every 11.1 balls outside of the powerplay.

Jason Roy has a strike rate of 147.3 during the powerplay compared with 142.6 outside of it. In contrast, Suresh Raina, who came in at the fall of the opening wicket, has a strike rate of 127.0 during the powerplay compared to 139.1 outside of it. So, Gujarat effectively brought in a player that scores better once the fielding restrictions are relaxed during the powerplay, rather than a player that thrives under those conditions.

IPL Preview - Gujarat Lions

The Overseas Players

The pick of the overseas players that Gujarat Lions have signed for this season is undoubtedly Jason Roy. My model has him as the 5th ranked batsman in global T20 cricket with a rating of 1.26, which is outstanding. A strike rate of 146.0 as an opening batsman is excellent and, as I have written about previously, he is also one of the fastest starting opening batsmen in T20 cricket. Another interesting aspect of Roy's game is that while he is a decent six hitter, he is one of the best players at hitting fours - his average of a four every 6.14 balls faced is almost unparalleled. The only potential concern may be his ability against spin bowling, where his strike rate is 136.6 and he is dismissed every 17.1 balls faced against spinners, compared to every 23.3 balls against non-spin, but he is undoubtedly going to be a key player for the Gujarat Lions in 2017.

The IPL could be the stage that Jason Roy needs to prove his quality

The potential of Jason Roy alongside Aaron Finch and Brendon McCullum makes for an incredibly exciting top order for the Gujarat Lions. Finch (1.18 rating) and McCullum (1.17 rating) are both top class batsmen in their own right. In addition, they are both also among the fastest starting opening batsmen in T20 cricket, which raises the possibility of some huge powerplay scores for Gujarat if they all click on any given day.

They also have Dwayne Smith as a potential option to open the batting, but with a batting rating of 1.01, it is tough to make an argument for him over the other three. Whilst he does also provide an option with the ball, a bowling rating of 0.87 suggests that it is probably not a particularly good option.

The hugely experienced duo of James Faulkner and Dwayne Bravo provide all-rounder options among the overseas players. Faulkner has a bowling rating of 0.99, but is an above average death bowler, which does provide options. In terms of his batting, a rating of 0.83 is not particularly impressive, he has a fairly low strike rate and does not hit too many boundaries, but he does face very few dot balls, which can be useful with bigger hitters around him. Dwayne Bravo is virtually the most experienced T20 cricketer in the game, but a batting rating of 0.83 and a bowling rating of 0.91 does not really back up the fact that he is an overly useful player.

James Faulkner ability with the ball at the death will be important for Gujarat

They also have the option of Andrew Tye, an Australian bowler that tends to bowl at the death on a regular basis. However, a death bowling rating of 0.84 suggests that he is not as good as people think that he is and it is tough to really make any argument for him in this team.

The Indian Players

With a batting rating of 1.09, Suresh Raina provides another high quality batting option for Gujarat Lions. He has a reasonable strike rate, but he is very effective at not losing his wicket and is pretty adept at rotating the strike. As a foil to the big hitting overseas trio of Roy, Finch and McCullum, it gives Gujarat as good a top four as any team in the tournament.

In Dinesh Karthik, Gujarat have a wicket-keeper that is solid as a batsman as well. While his batting rating of 0.99 puts him almost perfectly at the global average, there are far worse options when it comes to keeping and, as an Indian player, it does not count toward their overseas quota.

It is important to have high quality Indian players and Suresh Raina is certainly that

However, bowling options are where there could be problems for the Gujarat Lions. Praveen Kumar is quite simply not good enough with a bowling rating of just 0.88. His economy rate is not too bad, but he just does not take wickets. My data shows him with 69 wickets compared to an expected 104.8 wickets, which is just not good enough. Shadab Jakati is another bowling option, but again, with a rating of just 0.90, he is not a bowler that is likely to be a major positive for Gujarat.

Whilst Ravindra Jadeja has proven himself to be a very decent test bowler, my model still feels that he has plenty to prove in the shortest format. A bowling rating of 0.93 suggests that he has some issues in T20 cricket and if you look at the batsmen that have thrived against him, the big hitters have tended to have a lot of joy with the likes of AB de Villiers (179 SR), David Miller (191 SR), Kieron Pollard (222 SR) and Andre Russell (250 SR) all being able to score rapidly against him.

Munaf Patel is a better option with a bowling rating of 1.02. He is particularly strong in the powerplay and the middle overs, but his death bowling rating of 0.81 suggests that, if he is selected, Gujarat would be best off using his overs earlier in the innings, rather than using him at the end.

The best bowler in this squad would appear to be Dhawal Kulkarni with a bowling rating of 1.04. He has shown in the past that he is an excellent bowler in the powerplay overs, particularly with regard to taking wickets, and with the limited bowling options, he may be relied on to get early wickets if Gujarat are not to find themselves chasing some big targets.

Gujarat will need Dhawal Kulkarni to perform well early in the innings

Based on this, Gujarat Lions will be hoping that one of their younger Indian bowlers can stand out and make a name for themselves, but Shivil Kaushik (0.81 rating) does not appear to be a likely candidate. The other two options could be Nathu Singh or Basil Thampi, but I have no data on them, so it is impossible to know whether they might be what Gujarat could need.

Final Thoughts

Gujarat have invested heavily on the batting side and they will relying on the batsmen to score enough runs to make up for the weaknesses with the ball. Roy, Finch and McCullum have the potential to form a devastating top order, but given the lack of bowling options, it may be that they can only afford to play two of those and need both Faulkner and Bravo to cover as bowling options. However, with Suresh Raina and Dinesh Karthik, they do have some decent batting to cover the loss of one of the star openers. The other area that will be interesting is that, outside of the top order, there does not appear to be a great deal of power hitting. Neither Bravo or Faulkner are particularly big hitters of the ball and none of the bowlers are particularly reknowned as lower order hitters. It may well be that they rely on the top order to get them off to a rapid start, but slow down as the innings progresses.

IPL Preview - Sunrisers Hyderabad

The Overseas Players

In their captain, David Warner, Sunrisers Hyderabad have one of the best T20 batsmen in global cricket. With a batting rating of 1.24, he is ranked as the 6th best batsman in my ratings and there are very few signs of any weaknesses in his game. He scores significantly faster than the average batsman, whilst being dismissed significantly less regularly. He has a strike rate of 139.0 against spin bowling and 142.6 against non-spin bowling and is also a player that is a fast starter at the beginning of his innings, with a strike rate of 122.0 in the 1st 10 balls that he faces. Whilst he does sometimes have a tendency to be dismissed early with 30.9% of his innings having between 0 and 9 runs scored, if he reaches 20 runs, he converts that into at least a half century over 50.0% of the time.

David Warner will need to have an excellent tournament for Sunrisers

Kane Williamson is the other overseas batsman in their line-up and despite his excellent test record, his T20 rating of 1.08 means that, while comfortably above average, he is far from an elite performer in this format. He is a player that does not really have the ability to score significantly above average with a strike rate of 123.5, which is only fractionally above what one would expect from an average batsman in his position.

Among the overseas bowling options, Sunrisers Hyderabad have recruited well. In Mustafizur Rahman, Rashid Khan, Chris Jordan and Ben Laughlin, they have four bowlers that can be very effective when used correctly. 18-year old Rashid Khan has a bowling rating of 1.12 for the middle overs and 1.08 for the death overs and is a very dangerous wicket-taking bowler as well as having above average economy. Mustafizur Rahman has an incredible 1.41 rating for the powerplay overs, driven in particular by an outstanding economy rate. He is not a huge wicket-taking bowler, but he is very difficult to score off. He could potentially form a decent partnership with Ben Laughlin, whose powerplay rating of 1.22 is driven more by wicket-taking than by economy. However, it would be advised not to use Laughlin toward the death, where a rating of 0.91 is pretty poor and he both takes fewer wickets and concedes more runs than might be expected. Chris Jordan is another player with a reputation as a death bowler, but his most effective use might appear to be as a wicket-taker during the middle overs, where he has taken 20 wickets compared to an expected 16.4 during his career.

Rashid Khan could be a breakout star of this tournament

Among the all-rounders, Ben Cutting is just about fine as a lower order hitter, but his bowling rating of 0.87 suggests that he is probably not really the best option. In addition, a real struggle against spin bowling means that the IPL may not be the best place for him to make an impact. A couple of recent innings against Ireland have suggested that Mohammad Nabi might be another option as a lower order hitter, although that has been somewhat at odds with the rest of his career. Similar to Cutting, his bowling rating of 0.90 is not great either. Moises Henriques is a significantly better batsman than either Nabi or Cutting and has a better bowling rating as well, so he is really the all-rounder option that you would look at among the overseas players if required.

The Indian Players

In Ashish Nehra and Bhuvneshwar Kumar, the Sunrisers Hyderabad have two slightly above average bowling options. Kumar is similar to Mustafizur Rahman in that he relies more on a good economy rate than wicket-taking, while Nehra is more rounded, but they give the team two solid fast bowling options. Barinder Sran played plenty of matches last year, but a bowling rating of 0.96 suggests that there are better options in the squad. Spinner Pravin Tambe burst onto the scene in 2013 and 2014 (albeit at the age of 41) and while his rating has dropped since then, he still has an overall bowling rating of 1.12 and is a wicket-taker during the middle overs.

Whilst the overseas all-rounders did not really have any obvious standouts, Bipul Sharma looks a very tempting option among the domestic players. While he has limited batting experience at this level, he looks a serviceable lower order hitter with a strike rate of 160.6 and his bowling rating of 1.04 makes him an option with the ball. On the other hand, Deepak Hooda has a batting rating of 0.90 and a bowling rating of 0.82 meaning that he really should not be getting much game time in this team.

Bipul Sharma could be a useful all-rounder for the Sunrisers

With a batting rating of 1.03, Shikhar Dhawan looks to be a very similar player to Kane Williamson. He is not a particularly rapid scorer with a strike rate of just 121.6, but he is capable of hanging around and holding up an end. With other more attacking batsmen around him, he is a useful player, but Sunrisers Hyderabad do run the risk of ending up with Dhawan and Williamson batting too long together while scoring too slowly if they find themselves at the crease together.

Naman Ojha seems likely to be the keeper for Sunrisers Hyderabad, but with a batting rating of 0.78, he is not a player that they are likely to want to rely on for too many runs.

That leaves Yuvraj Singh, whose batting rating of 0.93 suggests that he is well past his prime and, whilst his record of 14.7 balls per six is solid, he also faces too many dot balls (36.7%), which does not help when they do not have too many other boundary hitters in their squad.

Final Thoughts

The bowling options for Sunrisers Hyderabad look very solid with Nehra, Kumar, Tambe and Sharma giving them options among the Indian players and plenty of talent to supplement among the overseas recruits. However, they are going to need to rely on the bowlers in plenty of their matches this year as the batting looks worryingly short. While there may be a lack of real top quality death bowlers on this team, they have wicket-taking options in both the powerplay and middle overs and two very economical bowlers in Mustafizur Rahman and Kumar to build the pressure.

David Warner is the real standout in this team and they are going to need him to be at the absolutely top of his game. Kane Williamson and Shikhar Dhawan are solid options and, if their bowlers can restrict opposition teams to manageable totals, they should be adequate. However, they do not seem to have the players that are likely to be able to set or chase large totals, which could be an issue if the bowlers do not live up to expectations.

Random Player Stats

• Bhuvneshwar Kumar has conceded just 77 runs in 108 deliveries to Dwayne Smith, Brendon McCullum and Quinton de Kock, but has conceded 145 runs in 96 deliveries to Chris Gayle and AB de Villiers

• The three batsman that Mustafizur Rahman has bowled the most deliveries to in T20 cricket are Virat Kohli, Kane Williamson and AB de Villiers. He has dismissed all of them once and has conceded just 63 runs in 64 balls against the trio

• The only two bowlers that David Warner has faced more than 30 deliveries from with a strike rate of sub-100 are Dwayne Bravo and James Faulkner. However, he enjoys facing Yuzvendra Chahal, who he has hit 5 sixes off in just 38 balls