Donna Vekic

Initial World Ranking: 109

Current World Ranking: 94

2013 Record: 19-15

2013 Titles: 1 ($50k Istanbul)

Tournament Breakdown

ITF $10k: 0-0

ITF $25k: 0-0

ITF $50k: 5-0

ITF $75k: 0-0

ITF $100k: 0-1

ITF $125k: 0-0

WTA Qualifying: 2-2

WTA: 10-8

Grand Slam Qualifying: 0-0

Grand Slam: 2-4

Surface Breakdown

Hard: 14-8

Indoor Hard: 0-3

Clay: 0-2

Grass: 5-2

Best Win

Sorana Cirstea (#24): 6-2, 6-1 (WTA Birmingham)

Worst Defeat

Alexandra Dulgheru (#228): 6-2, 4-6, 6-4 (WTA Cincinnati)

What did DW on Sport predict?

“Her ranking has shot up from 392 to 109 in 2012 and she should be looking to start competing more at the full WTA level next year. She should be fancied to qualify for the Australian Open, and at only 16-years old, she has the potential to go all the way to the top”

2013 in Review

Donna Vekic finished 2012 in excellent form and showed no signs of letting up at the start of 2013. In her first match of the year, she scored a very impressive win, dropping just three games in a demolition of Andrea Hlavackova at the Australian Open to set up a second round match against Caroline Wozniacki. Although she would lose, it was a solid performance that brought her to the attention of casual tennis fans.

After a brief stop in Kuala Lumpur, losing in three sets to Bethanie Mattek-Sands, she headed for Miami, where she came through qualifying without too many problems. She won her first round match against Yulia Putintseva before losing to the 29th seed, Elena Vesnina. She backed this up with another second round in Monterrey, losing to Urszula Radwanksa. Her first and only title of 2013 would come at the $50k event in Istanbul. Despite a few wobbles early on, she won the title comfortably as the top seed to finish off the early season hard court spell.

The clay court swing brought little joy for Vekic. A straight sets defeat in the first round of qualifying for Madrid against Chanelle Scheepers was hardly good preparation for the French Open, and she would lose again in straight sets in the first round at Roland Garros to the American, Mallory Burdette.

Moving onto the grass, she was clearly far more comfortable as she embarked on an excellent run in Birmingham. Victories over Camila Giorgi, who reached the fourth round of Wimbledon in 2012, and three seeded players in Urszula Radwanska, Sorana Cirstea and Magdalena Rybarikova saw her reach her first WTA final of the year. Sadly, a rejuvenated Daniela Hantuchova proved to be a step too far in the final, but it raised hopes of a decent run at Wimbledon. Alas, it was not to be. A disappointing first round defeat against the returning Petra Cetkovska was a blow, particularly given she won just four games.

The next stop was Baku. She looked as though she meant business, dropping just four games in her opening two matches, but another disappointment was to follow as she crashed out against fellow teenager, Elina Svitolina. That was to mark the start to a poor end to 2013.

She lost in three sets against Alexandra Dulgheru in the first round of qualifying for Cincinnati and struggled past Mariana Duque Marino in the first round of the US Open before winning just three games as she lost to the breakout star of 2013, Simona Halep.

Returning to Tashkent, the scene of her 2012 breakthrough, she was optimistic of a good run. However, victory over Lyudmyla Kichenok in the first round would mark the final time that Vekic would taste victory in 2013. Losses to Olga Govortsova in Tashkent, Kirsten Flipkens in Linz and Sabine Lisicki in Luxembourg were disappointing, if understandable, but the year finished on a particularly poor point with a straight sets defeat to Mandy Minella in Poitiers.

Analysis of 2013

It was always going to be a difficult season for Vekic. She managed her schedule very cleverly last year, picking up a lot of cheap points in weak African and Asian $25k events, so playing predominantly WTA events this year was going to be a big step up. Despite this, it has been a reasonable season. The standout highlight was her wonderful run in Birmingham, but she also reached the second round of two Grand Slams, plus Miami.

Her results dropped off a bit in the later part of the year and the way that she fell away in matches once she went behind was slightly concerning. However, she showed glimpses of her ability in taking sets off Flipkens and Lisicki, so there is plenty of promise.

Aims for 2014?

For the first half of the year, she will still be restricted as to the tournaments that she can play because of her age, so it will be tough for her to really move up the rankings. She will be hoping to pick up some decent results on the hard courts in Australia and North America before tackling the clay court swing.

However, where she will really be hoping to do some damage is the grass court tournaments. She showed that she enjoys playing on the surface and she could have a chance of a few wins at Wimbledon if she gets a favourable draw. With the restrictions, I would expect to see her limiting her clay court tournaments and focusing on the hard courts and the grass. Once she turns 18, she can start playing a full schedule, which should help boost her ranking.

A few comments

• Her biggest weapons are clearly her forehand and the serve, both of which have the potential to become serious threats to most players on tour. However, her backhand still needs plenty of work as it is a clear weakness that players have been targeting.
• The main area that needs work is her movement and stamina. David Felgate, her coach, has already stated that he recognises that this is the area that needs to improve, so I would imagine there will be a lot of work on that over the winter.
• I suspect that she will struggle to really move much higher in the ranking until mid-2015 when she has had a full season under her belt with no age restrictions. It is tough to remember that she is still only 17, so there is still huge scope for improvement over the next few years.
• She has stated that she will be practicing a lot on clay over the winter in an effort to become a more rounded player that can compete on all surfaces. If nothing else, this should help her develop her movement on a tennis court.
• Stamina seemed to be an issue as she tended to fade away at the end of tough matches. She also noticeably struggled in the heat in Australia and Baku. However, again, she is still very young and is still developing. There are already signs that she is beginning to grow into her body and I would expect her to improve her stamina and build some more muscle over the next 12-24 months.
• Being limited in the number of tournaments that she could play, there might have been an argument that she should have looked to play some club tennis, maybe in the Bundesliga or similar such competitions. It would have given her additional match practice, plus allowed her to work on her clay court game.

DW on Sport Rating

Anett Kontaveit

Initial World Ranking: 439

Current World Ranking: 228

2013 Record: 38-12

2013 Titles: 4 ($10k Marathon, $25k Moscow, $10k Izmir, $25k Margaret River)

Best Win: Olivia Rogowska (#159)

Worst Defeat: Anna Smith (#949)

Tournament Breakdown

ITF $10k: 11-1

ITF $25k: 26-8

ITF $50k: 1-2

ITF $75k: 0-0

ITF $100k: 0-0

ITF $125k: 0-0

WTA Qualifying: 0-0

WTA: 1 0-1

Grand Slam Qualifying: 0-0

Grand Slam: 0-0

Surface Breakdown

Hard: 26-9

Indoor Hard: 0-0

Clay: 12-3

Grass: 0-0

Best Win

Olivia Rogowska (#159): 6-4, 6-1 ($25k Margaret River, Australia)

Worst Defeat

Anna Smith (#949): 7-6, 6-2 ($10k Edinburgh, United Kingdom)

What did DW on Sport predict?

"She could still challenge on the junior circuit next year, but it would be no surprise to see her playing more senior matches and her ranking should start to rise rapidly over the next twelve months”

2013 in Review

She started the year with a run to the semi-final at the Junior Australian Open. Four straight sets victories for the tenth seed raised hopes of back-to-back Grand Slam finals, but she would come up short against Katerina Siniakova.

Remaining in Australia, she came through qualifying to reach the semi-final of the $25k event in Burnie, squandering match points against Monique Adamczak before going down 6-4 in the third. Six matches in a week in Burnie put pay to her hopes in Launceston the following week where she lost meekly to Azra Hadzic.

Her next outing would be in the WTA event in Miami, where she received a wildcard into the main draw. In her first ever main-draw WTA match, she struggled against Christina McHale, winning just 41% of points behind her serve and unable to make much of an impact on the American’s serve. However, it provided good experience for Kontaveit against one of the highest ranked opponents she has played to date.

After disappointment in the next two tournaments in her home city of Tallinn and in Edinburgh, she broke her title drought in spectacular fashion, winning as a qualifier in the $10k event in Marathon, dropping just one set, before going one better and taking the $25k title in Moscow as a qualifier without dropping a single set in her seven matches.

Despite this success on the clay in Moscow, she was a surprise loser in the first round of the Junior French Open, losing to Ilka Csoregi in straight sets. Having played no warm-up singles events on grass, she headed to the Junior Wimbledon event hopefully of a decent run. After winning her first two matches for the loss of just three games, she ran into the seemingly unbeatable Belinda Bencic, who was on a 31-match unbeaten run. In one of the highest quality matches in the tournament, Kontaveit would eventually succumb 6-2 in the third set, but she could take plenty of heart from her performance.

Returning to the senior circuit in Wrexham, she had a disappointing quarter-final defeat to Jovana Jaksic, before bouncing back to winning ways with her third title of the season in the $10k event in Izmir. A tight defeat against Dinah Pfizenmaier in the $25k event the following week was no great disappointment and she reached the final of the $25k event in Podgroica in early September, eventually losing to Stephanie Vogt.

After a month off, her return to Australia got off to a difficult start with a disappointing loss to Alison Bai, but a week later, she won a high-quality $25k event in Margaret River, overcoming Arina Rodionova, Olivia Rogowska and Irina Falconi for the loss of just one set.

Making the step up to a couple of $50k events, she lost in the first round in Bendigo to Erika Sema in three sets, despite saving match points in the second, before losing in the second round in the second Bendigo event to Noppawan Lertcheewakarn to end a reasonable 2013.

Analysis of 2013

While she may have won four titles, it was ultimately a disappointing year for Kontaveit. She struggled to make much of an impact above the $25k level and it will have been tough for her to see how the players that she was beating last year have pushed on. She beat the likes of Bouchard, Knapp and Mladenovic in 2012, all of whom are now established top 50 players in the WTA.

She was not regularly losing to players ranked far below her and there were admittedly reasons for some of the defeats. However, she should really have been hoping to push on this year into the top 200. After the way that the last couple of years have been so successful for her, it will be interesting to see how she comes back in 2014 after what has been a rather average twelve months.

Her scheduling was also rather peculiar. She withdrew from $50k and $75k events to play $10k events, which certainly did not help her ranking, while it seemed strange that she did not take advantage of some of the weak American $50k events post-US Open. She has enjoyed success playing in the USA in the past, having reached the Junior US Open final in 2012, and she would potentially have been seeded for a few of the tournaments. Instead, she headed to Australia to play various $25k events, before failing in the weak $50k event to finish the season. Finally, she missed the chance of qualifying for some of the weaker WTA events. She would have been seeded in qualifying for the likes of Bastad and Bad Gastein, giving herself the opportunity to reach the main draw, with the points that come with that. Instead, she played various $10k and $25k events.

Aims for 2014?

Her ranking is now high enough to get into Grand Slam qualifying events and she must be aiming to win a few matches in those during the year, even if qualification might be a step too far. However, she needs to start winning matches and titles at the $50k level on a more regular basis and look at playing qualifying for some of the lower-level WTA tournaments. The prize money and points for these will give her a real boost and she will start finding herself seeded in most of the ITF events that she plays.

She will have seen the progress that the likes of Bouchard and Schmiedlova have made this year and will know that she is capable of matching some of those achievements. Whether she can find the consistency to achieve this will be a key to how her future career may pan out.

A few comments

• She is clearly capable of a high level of tennis, but inconsistency is the major flaw in her game right now. It is understandable for such a young player, but her level of play seems to be far too connected to her mood.
• She seems to zone out in matches and find herself on long losing runs. Countless times this year she lost 10+ consecutive points in matches, turning what should be routine matches into struggles. She needs to maintain her concentration throughout matches or she will struggle to beat higher ranked opponents.
• Linked to the consistency and concentration issue, she needs to work on the mental side of her game. She often struggles to serve out sets and matches, plus she was able to win just one tiebreak all year.
• The serve definitely requires a lot of work. She gets very few cheap points behind her serve and she throws in far too many double faults. Even if she is not getting cheap points, she needs to ensure that her serve does not just sit up and beg to be hit.
• Needs to spend more time considering her schedule. Playing $10k events should be below her now and will not help her improve her rankings, while she seemed to pick particularly strong $25k events to enter, meaning she struggled to pick up points. It would have made more sense for her to look at entering a few more weaker $25k events and $50k/$75k events, even if that meant playing through qualifying for them.
• She appears to need time to settle into new areas. She often struggles in her first events in a new country or continent, which is something that she will need to work on as she moves closer to the WTA tour.
• Her ranking should be good enough to enter qualifying for the Grand Slams in 2014, which combined with not having the limit on the number of tournaments that she can play, should see her continue to push up the rankings toward the verge of the top 100.
• Being able to play a full schedule could help her find the consistency that she needs. It is tough when you are not playing regularly, so getting into the flow of a regular schedule could be just what she needs.

DW on Sport Rating (out of 5)

Backing the Draws - Enhancing the Strategy

Last month, I looked at the strange phenomenon where blindly backing the draw in the Premier League resulted in some quite impressive profits (read the article here). We found that simply backing the draw in every Premier League match returned £668.90 on £10 stakes, giving an overall ROI for the three season period of 5.87%.

Draws are rarely the most exciting of results, but they can be hugely profitable

We then looked at narrowing this selection down by focussing on matches where the Under 2.5 goals price lay below certain thresholds. It appeared that by focussing solely on matches where the Unders were favourite, we could boost these returns up to 10.73%.

A valid question that a number of people raised in the comments was whether it would be better to refine our selections by focussing on eliminating strong favourites, rather than by using the goal expectancy. As a first test, I looked at all those matches where the average price of the favourite lay below the 1.50 threshold.

	Staked	Profit	ROI
2010/11	£3,040	£435.80	14.34%
2011/12	£2,890	-£97.20	-3.36%
2012/13	£2,960	£603.50	20.39%
Total	£8,890	£942.10	10.60%

As we can see, this strategy returns some impressive figures. Over the three seasons, £10 stakes on every match where the favourite was at least 1.50 would have returned profits of £942.10 at an ROI of 10.60%. Indeed, in both the 2010/11 and 2012/13 seasons, the ROI was exceptionally high, even peaking at over 20% for last season.

However, can we make this even higher by changing our definition of a strong favourite? The table below looks at these figures for different definitions of strong favouritism:

Odds of Favourite	Total Matches	Total Profit	ROI
< 1.20	1117	£898.90	8.05%
< 1.30	1033	£1,022.50	9.90%
< 1.40	967	£1,041.60	10.77%
< 1.50	889	£942.10	10.60%
< 1.60	806	£783.30	9.72%
< 1.70	739	£776.10	10.50%
< 1.80	664	£563.80	8.49%
< 1.90	569	£469.70	8.25%
< 2.00	481	£408.90	8.50%

As we can see, there is not a great fluctuation of the ROI at any of these levels, although excluding favourites below 1.40 would appear to give the highest ROI at 10.77%.

Finally, can we increase our ROI even further by combining the two strategies that we have looked at? We have noted that excluding favourites priced below 1.40 has the highest rate of return for this strategy and we saw that excluding any matches where the price on Under 2.5 goals was greater than 2.1 was the optimal form of the previous strategy. So, if we combine the two, can they improve on the returns? The table below shows the results:

	Staked	Profit	ROI
2010/11	£2,630	£461.00	17.53%
2011/12	£1,360	£153.70	11.30%
2012/13	£2,230	£507.10	22.74%
Total	£6,220	£1,121.80	18.04%

The answer would seem to be a resounding yes. By taking all those matches from earlier where the favourite is greater than 1.40 and applying the additional filter of excluding high scoring matches, the returns are really very impressive. Over the past three seasons, there were 622 matches that matched both of these filters. By staking £10 on each of those 622 matches, you would have seen profits of £1,121.80, working out at a ROI of over 18% - an excellent return for any system.

If anyone has any further ideas on refining this, feel free to mention them in the comments section and I will endeavour to research them further...

World Championship Road Race Betting Preview

The World Championship elite men’s road race this year could be one of the most intriguing races for a long time with opportunities for a whole range of different types of rider to get their hands on the coveted rainbow jersey.

At 272.2km, it will be a long day for the riders and it will be a tough ride, particularly once the circuits around Florence start. The laps are 16.6km long and will test the riders to their limits. The Fiesole climb is 4.4km long with an average gradient of 5.2% with a steep section of over 10% at the end of the climb. They then embark on a reasonably technical descent down from Fiesole, then the short climb on Via Salviati. The climb is only 600m long, but with an average gradient of over 10% and a section of 200m at over 16%, it could be the perfect spot for the climbers to launch their attacks.

The favourite for this race is Fabian Cancellara. He has been targeting this race since the spring and would appear to be in excellent condition. His third place in the ITT, just two seconds behind Bradley Wiggins was far better than I expected, and it is hard to see him not being in the mix. On a classics-type course such as this, he will be fancying his chances, and he will view the technical sections of the descents as an opportunity to force the others to push themselves. The only real question is whether he can stay will the punchier climbers on Fiesole and Via Salviati, but Matej Mohoric, the winner of the U23 race, said that the course is not quite as difficult as it looks.

Peter Sagan has had an excellent year and will be hoping to cap it off with the World Championship title. It will be difficult to drop him on these short punchier climbs and if he is there at the finish, he will be the favourite in a sprint. However, there have been some questions concerning his tactics in the Classics and he is yet to win a long race such as this. Despite this, he is the second favourite and will certainly be one to watch.

Fabian Cancellara is the favourite to win the World Championship Road Race

The defending champion, Philippe Gilbert, finally won a race in the rainbow jersey at almost the last possible opportunity in the Vuelta. A few years ago, you would have marked Gilbert down as the big favourite for a race like this, but his form has dropped off. To win this, Gilbert will probably have to look to get away on the final lap up either the climb to Fiesole or Via Salviati. Whether he can get away, given the form that he is in, remains questionable. However, it is dangerous to write off someone like Gilbert in a race such as this.

The next group of potential winners are the GC-type riders. The likes of Vincenzo Nibali for Italy, Alejandro Valverde, Joaquim Rodriguez and Alberto Contador for Spain, Chris Froome for Great Britain and Nairo Quintana for Colombia. Any of these riders will know that they have to lose the likes of Cancellara, Sagan and Gilbert if they are to stand any chance of winning this race.

These riders will likely attack on the final lap ascents to Fiesole and Via Salviati. The final climb of Via Salviati is most likely to be where the race really kicks off – on steep climbs like this, few can stick with Joaquim Rodriguez, while Nibali and Froome have both shown their ability to ride away from the field in the Giro d’Italia and Tour de France respectively. If it comes down to a group of GC-type riders, Alejandro Valverde will fancy himself to have the best sprint finish.

It is also worth keeping in mind those riders that perform well in the Classics. Especially if Mohoric is correct in that the course is not quite as tough as it appears, this brings this type of rider into contention. Edvald Boasson Hagen is certainly one to watch. He is capable of sticking with the peloton on some of the trickier climbs and he would certainly fancy his chances in a sprint in a reduced group. Ian Stannard performed well this year and looked in excellent shape during the Tour of Britain. If there are any problems with Chris Froome, particularly if he decides that he cannot get away on the short climbs, Stannard could well become Great Britain’s second choice. The likes of Maxim Iglinsky, Carlos Betancur, Zdenek Stybar, Jan Bakelandts, Thomas Voeckler, Warren Barguil, Nicolas Roche and Diego Ulissi cannot be discounted either.

Two particularly interesting riders are Dan Martin and Rui Costa. Martin looked in good form at the Tour of Britain, particularly on the steep climb to Honister Pass, plus he has proven ability to win these long races. His performance at Liege-Bastogne-Liege is particularly relevant here, having won a long race and showing excellent tactics at the end. He has a good turn of pace if it comes to a sprint in a small group and he is not afraid to attack on the climbs. Similarly, Rui Costa has been in excellent form this year, winning two stages in the Tour de France and will be hoping that he can attack and hold onto a lead.

Dan Martin is an interesting outsider for this race

The final twist to this race is that rain is expected on Sunday. This could make the descents particularly difficult, plus making attacking on steep slippery and possibly oily roads tough. On the later circuits, we might see the top descenders looking to take a few risks and put their challengers under some pressure. The likes of Fabian Cancellara, Vincenzo Nibali and Peter Sagan could put some of the other hopefuls under real pressure if they decide to rocket down the technical parts of the descents. In terms of riders that have performed well in bad weather this year, Nibali in the Giro certainly springs to mind, while those riders that performed well in Milan-San Remo (Sagan, Cancellara and Stannard) must be worth a look.

Overall, it has the potential to be an enthralling race with different groups of riders looking to employ a range of tactics. Picking a winner is certainly not easy, but a few bets do stand out.

Recommended Bets

Fabian Cancellara @ 18/5 (William Hill)

Dan Martin E/W @ 33/1 (Stan James)

Edvald Boasson Hagen E/W @ 40/1 (Paddy Power)

Ian Stannard E/W @ 200/1 (Bet365)

Quiksilver Pro France Surfing Betting Preview

The Quiksilver Pro France 2013 gets underway in the early hours of Thursday morning. For those that don’t know how it work, there are 36 surfers that are divided into 12 heats of three. The winner in each heat progresses to the third round, while the two loses face each other in 12 second round head-to-heads to determine the other 12 surfers that will progress to the third round.

Kelly Slater finally won his first title in France last year

The 12 winners in the third round progress to the fourth round, where they are grouped into four heats of three surfers. The four winners progress to the quarter-finals, while the eight losers go into four fifth round ties to determine the other four quarter finalists. From there, the four winner quarter-finalists progress to the semis, then the two winners move into the final to surf for the title, the ranking points and the $75,000 prize money. Thus, the format gives surfers several opportunities to fail to win a heat, yet still progress.

The favourite is the 11-time ASP World Champion, Kelly Slater, at 3/1. However, despite all his success, he has only won once in his career at Hossegor, although that was last year. He has reached the final three times in the last five years and the quarter-finals on two other occasions. He is currently second in this year’s World Championship, having won two of the seven events and reaching one further final. He has last year’s beaten finalist, Dane Reynolds, in his heat along with Adam Melling.

The 2007 and 2009 champion, Mick Fanning, leads Slater in the World Championship standings. While he is yet to win an event this year, he has been ultra-consistent, having reached at least the semi-final in four of the seven events, plus reaching the quarter-final in another. He only reached the third round here last year, but has won this event on three previous occasions, suggesting that he loves the conditions here.

Taj Burrows won earlier this month in Trestles to put an end to a poor sequence of results and to retain hope of challenging for a first World Championship title. He has reached one further semi-final earlier this season in Australia, but chances are running out for the 35-year old.

South African, Jordy Smith, sits fourth in the standings after a good season that has seen him win in Brazil and reach two further semi-finals. A victory here would put him right in the mix for the title, particularly if Slater and Fanning slip up as they did in Trestles earlier this month. JJ Florence, at just 20, is potential the next big thing in surfing. He reached the semi-final here last year and has reached a quarter-final and semi-final in his four events this season.

The other two major contenders are the Australian pair of Julian Wilson and Joel Parkinson. Parkinson is the defending ASP World Champion, although he has not quite lived up to that success this year. He lies third in the rankings, but has reached just one final and no other semi-finals this season. Wilson reached the final in Trestles and will be looking to back up that good performance here.

With six different winners in the seven events this season, picking the victor is tricky. Instead, we focus on some of the more consistent performances and hope for returns on the each-way terms. Mick Fanning would have placed four times in seven events this season, while Jordy Smith would have placed in three of his events. I fancy the young star, JJ Florence, to perform well here as well. One outsider might be Gabriel Medina, who reached the quarter-finals last year and won it the year before.

Recommended Bets

Mick Fanning E/W @ 7/1 (Paddy Power)

Jordy Smith E/W @ 9/1 (Paddy Power)

JJ Florence E/W @ 11/1 (Paddy Power)

Gabriel Medina E/W @ 33/1 (Paddy Power)

Backing the Draws - A Profitable Strategy?

The Premier League is often touted as the ‘Greatest League in the World’. Whether you agree with that sentiment or not, there is one particular aspect of it that makes it a dream for punters. The key angle for punters is backing the draw.

Generally, bookmakers see the least amount of money on the draw in the 1x2 markets. People do not like backing the draw – quite simply, it is boring. The casual punter wants to cheer on one team or the other. People will always view one team as better than the other team. As a result, the draw is often undervalued in the market.

Fans rarely go to a match wanting to see a draw

If we look at the past three completed seasons in the Premier League, we can see how blindly backing the draw can be particularly profitable:

	Staked	Profit	ROI
2010/11	£3,800	£462.80	12.18%
2011/12	£3,800	-£117.60	-3.09%
2012/13	£3,800	£323.70	8.52%
Total	£11,400	£668.90	5.87%

The figures are based on placing £10 on the draw in every Premier League match over the course of a season. As we can see, you would have won money in two out of the three seasons, with the overall profit for the three year period being an impressive £668.90, which represents a 5.87% return on your initial stakes.

That is a pretty impressive return for a system that requires absolutely no research at all. It simply requires you to blindly back the draw in every match over the course of a season. The question is whether this is a phenomenon that is unique to the Premier League or whether the draw is undervalued in other leagues. The table below shows the overall three year figures for a number of other leagues:

League	Staked	Profit	ROI
Championship	£16,560	-£481.60	-2.91%
League 1	£16,560	-£542.60	-3.28%
League 2	£16,560	-£464.80	-2.81%
Serie A (Italy)	£11,400	-£437.40	-3.84%
La Liga (Spain)	£11,400	-£1,212.20	-10.63%
Bundesliga (Germany)	£9,180	-£556.70	-6.06%

As we can see, none of the six leagues in the table above show a positive return from blindly backing the draw. This would appear to set the English Premier League aside as a particularly special case.

So, is it possible to improve the returns from the Premier League with a little bit of extra work? Before, we were blindly backing the draw in every single match, regardless of whether that match was expected to be a low-scoring affair between Aston Villa and Stoke, or an expected big win for Manchester United against Hull.

Logically, you would expect a tight, low-scoring affair to be more likely to end as a draw. Naturally, this is reflected slightly in the draw price, but given we have already seen that there are issues with the draw price in general, it is still worth looking at.

The table below drills deeper into this question:

Price for U2.5 Goals	Total Matches	Total Profit	ROI
1.7	108	£107.90	9.99%
1.8	295	£409.40	13.88%
1.9	472	£384.40	8.14%
2.0	657	£705.10	10.73%
2.1	793	£1,072.10	13.52%
2.2	907	£1,097.10	12.10%
2.3	1,001	£1,006.30	10.05%
2.4	1,045	£926.40	8.87%
2.5	1,073	£939.20	8.75%
2.6	1,096	£976.10	8.91%
2.7	1,100	£836.10	7.53%
2.8	1,117	£766.10	6.86%
2.9	1,125	£747.30	6.64%
3.0	1,131	£758.90	6.71%

The total matches column represents the number of matches over the past three seasons that have had an average price for the Under 2.5 goals market of below the price in the first column of the table. The total profit is the profit that would have been made on putting £10 on the draw in each of those selections. The table is cumulative, so the 295 matches with U2.5 odds of less than 1.80 includes those 108 matches with U2.5 odds of under 1.7 as well as those 187 matches with odds of between 1.7 and 1.8.

The returns now are highly impressive. Simply by backing the draw in every match over the past three seasons where the average Under 2.5 goals price was below 2.0, you would have made a 10.7% return on your stakes. Backing every match under 2.1, you would have made a 13.5% return on your stakes. Given that approximately 90% of people losing money betting on sports and that winning between 5-10% is generally seen as very respectable, it puts this into context. By doing no more research than simply looking at the Under 2.5 Goals price, you would have guaranteed yourself a double figures ROI.

How does this compare with a similar exercise on the other leagues we looked at earlier? The table below shows the profit and ROI for those six leagues for matches where the Under 2.5 Goals price is less than 2.0:

League	Total Matches	Profit	ROI
Championship	1,263	-£657.90	-5.21%
League 1	1,418	£7.60	0.05%
League 2	1,408	£327.20	2.32%
Serie A (Italy)	907	-£283.70	-3.13%
La Liga (Spain)	721	-£621.70	-8.62%
Bundesliga (Germany)	353	£36.10	1.02%

In all the league, bar the Championship, solely focussing on those matches where the Under 2.5 Goals price is less than 2.0 does increase the ROI. Indeed, in the cases of League 1, League 2 and the Bundesliga, it does return a profit, albeit nowhere close to that of the Premier League.

Overall, the Premier League does seem to be an anomaly when it comes to the draw market. Simply by focussing on matches with a low goal expectation and backing the draw, you would have seen returns of over 10% in the past three seasons – a remarkable rate given the lack of work and research needed.