Thursday, 16 May 2013

UEFA Financial Fair Play Rules Face Legal Challenge

The implementation of new rules that introduce barriers to entry and entrench existing disparities in an industry would normally be frowned upon, particularly when those rules are being introduced by an association that governs a large swathe of that industry. UEFA’s new Financial Fair Play (FFP) rules appear to do exactly this though, and it is no surprise to see the first major legal challenge to these regulations.

UEFA's FFP is one of Michel Platini's crowning achievements,
but it could face an uncertain legal future

What is FFP?

Firstly, we shall look at what exactly FFP rules are and the purpose that they are meant to serve. There were six primary objectives that were set out when UEFA announced the framework for FFP:
  •          To encourage responsible spending for the long-term benefit of football
  •          To improve the economic and financial capability of the clubs
  •          To ensure that clubs settle their liabilities with players, tax authorities and other clubs punctually
  •          To encourage clubs to operate on the basis of their own revenues
  •          To introduce more rationality and discipline in club football finance
  •          To protect the long-term viability and sustainability of European club football

These objectives were set out to try and put the brakes on costs and losses in football from spiralling out of control. Many clubs are currently underwritten by wealthy, often overseas, investors, while others have gambled the club’s future by operating above their means in the hopes of achieving increased future revenues. This has led to a number of high-profile collapses over the past decade, not just in the UK.

The general objective behind FFP is to ensure that clubs balance their books over a specified period of time. Varying aspects of it have also been separated adopted by leagues around Europe – the Premier League recently announced a limit on the increase of wage bills from season to season, while the Championship and Leagues 1 and 2 all have variant on UEFA’s break-even approach.

What are Striani’s grievances?

On the face of it, the aims and objectives of FFP seem very reasonable and the clubs themselves have agreed to abide by these rules. However, Belgian agent, Daniel Striani, with the backing of Bosman lawyer, Jean-Louis Dupont, has now launched a legal challenge to FFP on the basis that it contains anti-competitive measures and will impact on his ability to generate income due to reduced transfers between clubs.

The three main arguments that Striani and Dupont will employ are that FFP will restrict outside investment in football clubs, FFP will entrench the existing disparities within the market and that FFP will reduce the transfer market and salary packages, thus affecting Striani’s ability to generate income for his business.

Does the challenge have a chance?

One major question that must be discussed is how the European Union views sporting industries. An EU white paper on sport mentions that “the Commission acknowledged the usefulness of robust licensing systems as a tool for promoting good governance in sport.” On the face of it, that would suggest that there are no issues with FFP. However, it goes on to clarify that “such systems must be compatible with competition and internal market provisions and may not go beyond what is necessary for the pursuit of a legitimate objective relating to the proper organisation and conduct of sport.”

It is in this clarification where the issues may potentially lie. Sport is very different to other industries in that one of the key elements of sport is uncertainty. Unlike other industries, there is a strong interest on the part of clubs to ensure a degree of competitive balance within competitions and leagues.

So, the question really arises as to whether FFP is compatible with existing EU competition policy and whether it goes beyond what is necessary.

In an opinion piece in the New York Times, Dupont argues that FFP would struggle to meet existing EU law - “as an agreement whereby industry participants jointly decide to limit investments, FFP likely constitutes collusion and hence a violation of EU competition law.” The European Commission views this differently as EU competition chief, Joaquin Almunia, has already written to Michel Platini explaining his view that FFP is “consistent with the aims and objectives of EU policy.”

A former case, that of Meca-Medina in 2006, has set the precedent that sporting rules do not constitute a special case. They must be fully consistent with existing EU regulations. In other words, the European Court of Justice must apply the same tests to sporting rules as they would apply to rules in any other area of economic activity.

FFP will almost certainly distort competition and inter-community trade. It will almost certainly have an impact on the transfer market, both internally within countries and between EU member states. They will reduce both the size of transfer fees and the quantity of transfers between clubs. It will also limit investment from outside third-parties. It could be argued that this could entrench the existing elite at the top by limiting the ability of other clubs to break into this group.

Chelsea and Manchester City are the obvious two examples that have benefitted from outside investment, from Roman Abramovich and Sheikh Mansour respectively, to break into the elite group. Without this third party investment, it is very difficult to see a scenario where these two clubs could have achieved the position in which they now find themselves.

Dupont explains that “the break-even rule makes no allowance for the commercial disparities between individual national leagues, which means that smaller clubs are hit harder, proportionately, than larger ones. Without the ability to invest in their longer-term success, smaller clubs will stay small. This is clearly anticompetitive.”

So, the fact that it likely infringes upon competition policy is fairly clear. The real question is whether it goes beyond what is necessary to achieve its objectives – in other words, are there other regulations that could be implemented instead to achieve the same objectives, but that are less restrictive on clubs?

There is an argument that the existing regulations achieve the stated objectives. Clubs are required to meet certain specifications to receive a license from UEFA, including demonstrating that there are no overdue payments to other clubs, employees or tax authorities. It could be argued that there is no need to restrict how clubs spend their money, or how they utilise debt, provided that they can meet their obligations through their existing resources.

Striani and Dupont will argue that there are other, less restrictive, ways to achieve the stated objectives. Improved revenue-sharing and a ‘luxury tax’, as employed in the NBA, has been mentioned as an alternative.

It will be a nervous time for UEFA. They have already had to remove a transfer ban as one of the punishments for breaking FFP due to concerns over it being unenforceable in court. Now they face the real threat that the entire FFP framework could be picked apart in the European courts.

Giro d'Italia Stage 12 Preview

After Tuesday's brutal stage, it was a far quieter stage today with the breakaway eventually claiming the stage win through Garmin's Ramunas Navardauskas. We mentioned him in the preview as a likely contender for the breakaway, but not for the actual stage win itself.


Stage 12 should be a rare one for the sprinters and I would expect to see the likes of Omega Pharma Quickstep and Cannondale on the front of the peloton to ensure that their men have the opportunity to compete for the stage win.

Both Mark Cavendish and Elia Viviani have their eyes on the red jersey. Cavendish will take the jersey back off Cadel Evans should he win tomorrow, while Viviani has a chance to go back into the top 3 in the points competition. They are likely to be the two to beat.

With John Degenkolb's retirement from the race, the biggest threat is likely to come from Nacer Bouhanni. FDJ struggled with their lead-out train in the last sprint stage, but the Frenchman was almost able to come through and pip Cavendish on the line. I would expect them to get it right tomorrow, so Bouhanni will be a real threat.

Other than that, it is tough to see the likes of Matt Goss, Roberto Ferrari or Giacomo Nizzolo really challenging these three. It would be a real surprise to see anyone else up on the top spot of the podium, or even really on the lower steps of the podium.

Prediction

1. Cavendish
2. Bouhanni
3. Viviani
4. Goss
5. Mezgec

Recommended Bets

Mark Cavendish @ 8/11
Nacer Bouhanni E/W @ 10/1

Wednesday, 15 May 2013

The Role of Luck in the Premier League

How many times have we watched the ball hit the inside of the post and stay out? How many times has the bounce of the ball just taken it inches out of the reach of the striker? How many times has an opposition's shot taken a deflection and flown into the back of the net?

With football being such a low-scoring sport, luck plays a crucial role. The Premier League averages 2.77 goals per game, which is slightly above the general world average. However, with so few scoring plays, the importance of a single goal is high. Many goals or scoring opportunities involve luck in some form or another.

Luck in football can play a huge role. 

However, is there a way that we can measure the impact that luck can have on how a team performs over a season compared with the general talent in a team?

I was reading 'The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball' by Tom Tango and came across a formula that he uses to answer such a question. He hypothesises that overall talent can be estimated from the overall variance in a league, where:

Total Variance = Variance due to talent + variance due to luck

To calculate total variance, we will look at win percentages and calculate the variance over the 20 teams in the league. To calculate the variance due to luck, Tango suggests that we can use the following formula:

Standard Deviation due to Luck = (0.5*(0.5/Number of Matches Played)

However, the first issue to tackle is that of draws. Tango used his formula in baseball, where there are only two possible outcomes - win or lose. Obviously, in football, the draw is a common result, occurring in slightly over 25% of matches, so we cannot simply ignore them.

A commonly used alternative is to consider a draw as half a victory and half a loss. While this is not the worst method, it does ignore the fact that a team gains three points for a victory and just one for a draw. Therefore, it seems logical to consider a draw as a third of a victory and two thirds of a loss. As a result, we can then use this to scale up to actual points later, rather than just win percentages.

So, now we have our method set out, it is time to look at the results. In the current season, the average win percentage in the Premier League is 45.27%. If we multiply this by the 37 games that every team has played, it gives us a value for the average number of wins in the Premier League - 16.75. Remembering that each win is worth 3 points, we find that the average number of points in the Premier League is 50.25.

The variance of the winning percentages across the division is calculated to be 0.0247. We can also calculate the standard deviation due to luck, which comes out at 0.0822, which, when squared, gives an variance due to luck of 0.00676. In other words, the proportion of the total variance that can be explained by luck is 27.4%.

While it is encouraging that 72.6% of variance in the Premier League is determined by the talent of the players in each squad, the luck factor can still play a huge role. As we found earlier, the average number of points is 50.25. Given the variance due to luck, this would suggest that the average team would expect to gain points in the range from 37-64.

The difference between 37 points and 64 points is huge in the Premier League. A total of 37 points in the current season would put the team in 17th position, just two points clear of Wigan in the relegation zone going into the final day of the season. Conversely, 64 points would place the team in 6th position above Everton and, although not this season given the cup winners, would usually be good enough for a Europa League place.

We often see teams over-performing in one season before seemingly under-performing in the following season, raising the questions whether they were really as good as they were in one season, or as bad as they were in the other.

Newcastle are the prime example - last season, they had a wonderful season, finishing 5th and just missing out on the Champions League, while this season, they only secured their survival last weekend after a 2-1 win at QPR. They were fortunate to accrue as many points as they did last season, while arguably they have been unfortunate this season.

Interestingly, they collected 65 points last season, which puts them at the very top end of what we would expect from the average team, while their 41 points this season is only just above the bottom end of what we expect to see. Given many people would argue that Newcastle would be very close to the average, middle of the road Premier League team, their two seasons can be viewed as perfectly demonstrating the impact of luck and the natural variance of points around the expected mean.

Tuesday, 14 May 2013

Giro d'Italia Stage 11 Preview

For almost the first time in the race, the stage panned out precisely as we expected. An early breakaway group that was reeled in, an attack from Franco Pellizotti on his local slopes, and the smaller climbers pulling away from Wiggins and Gesink on the steepest sections of the climb.

Giro d'Italia Stage 11

After the brutal climbs today, stage 11 would appear to be suited to a breakaway success, although if Team Sky look to set a pace as they did today, then it could come down to a select group on the final climb. The next two stages are designed for the sprinters, so the GC contenders could look to give it one final attack before two gentle days to recover.

The battle for the mountain jersey should recommence with the category 2 climb of Sella Ciampigotto. Both Stefano Pirazzi and Robinson Chalapud were quiet today, but I would expect both of them to be in the break and competing for maximum points on the peak. Vini Fantini will likely look to put a rider in the break as well. The likes of Danilo Di Luca, Matteo Rabbotini and Stefano Garzelli are all far enough down in the GC that they will be allowed to go up the road. It is tough to decide which might be the one that goes - it could simply come down to whoever feels best in the morning.

Cadel Evans
Cadel Evans could look to steal bonus seconds by winning
a sprint between the leading contenders

The biggest shock in today's stage was that the defending champion, Ryder Hesjedal, cracked on the first climb and is now over 23 minutes back with his hopes of retaining his title in tatters. With that out of the question, Garmin may now look to go for stage wins, so it would be no surprise to see one of their riders up the front - Ramunas Navardauskas or even Hesjedal himself would appear to be the main candidates.

However, having seen how Team Sky pushed the pace on the climbs today, they could well look to do the same tomorrow and go for the bonus seconds available. With both Uran and Wiggins in the top 3, they have options and we could see either going for stage victory. Whether they could create any gaps remains to be seen, but the bonus seconds could be crucial in narrowing the gap to Nibali and Evans. In this scenario though, Cadel Evans would certainly be one to watch. Also targeting bonus seconds, he has shown his ability in the sprints against the other favourites and cannot be ruled out.

Two other riders to watch out for are Carlos Betancur and Enrico Battaglin. With back-to-back 2nd place finishes, Betancur has shown that he can attack and he will be desperate for that elusive stage win. While the finish is not the steepest, if he attacks, he has shown that he is tough to catch if he gets a gap. Similarly, Battaglin has shown that he can hang in on the less challenging climbs and he is very quick at the finish if he can make it there with the front group.

Prediction

1. Evans
2. Wiggins
3. Betancur
4. Nibali
5. Uran

Recommended Bets

Cadel Evans @ 12/1
Enrico Battaglin @ 33/1
Bradley Wiggins @ 50/1

Monday, 13 May 2013

Giro d'Italia Stage 10 Preview

After the first rest day of the Giro, the first of the proper mountain stages will test the riders that are hoping to make an impact.


The first 70km are pretty flat and there is an intermediate sprint at the 81km mark. After that, the first of the big climbs of the day up Passo Cason di Lanza will shed plenty of the peloton. Anyone that is not too far back might have a chance to get back into contention on the long descent, but the final climb to the summit finish at Altopiano del Montasio will whittle it down to the elite climbers.

It will be interesting to see whether a breakaway is allowed to go all the way and win this stage. While Astana have a strong team, it is tough to hold the leader's jersey for two weeks, so they may be happy for a breakaway rider to take over the jersey until later in the race. Again, we have two potential scenarios for this stage - a breakaway winner or a battle between the GC contenders on the final climb.

Domenico Pozzovivo could well look to win the stage with a solo
attack on the slopes of Altopiano del Montasio

Stefano Pirazzi will almost certainly be in the breakaway to begin with as he looks to pick up more mountain points on the Passo Cason di Lanza. It would also be little surprise to see at least one Colombian in the breakaway. John Darwin Atapuma was quietly fancied for the climber's jersey, but has been quiet so far. However, now the inclines ramp up and the altitude increases, I would expect to see him coming into his own.

I suspect though that a breakaway will not stay away and it will come down to the bigger names. There are some incredibly steep sections of the Altopiano del Montasio, starting at 14% and getting up as high as 18.5%, providing the perfect springboard for an attack. The bigger climbers might not enjoy this stage and the likes of Wiggins, Gesink and Hesjedal will probably be happy just to hang on and might even lose some time.

Instead, this will be where the smaller climbers excel. The likes of Vincenzo Nibali, Michele Scarponi, Cadel Evans and Mauro Santambrogio will be eyeing up the chance to put their challengers under serious pressure. However, one rider that I particularly fancy for this stage is Domenico Pozzovivo. He would appear to be in good form, given his position in the GC after the time trials, and could well be eyeing up a stage win. It would be no surprise to see him attack at some stage on the final climb and push away for the victory.

Another rider that it is worth keeping an eye on is Carlos Betancur. He is a little way back in the GC, so could be allowed to go away, and he will be looking at this as a chance to propel himself up the rankings and maybe target the young rider's classification. He showed in the last stage that he is in good form, and although this will be a tough challenge, if he is in top form, he is capable of winning this solo.

I would also not be overly surprised to see Franco Pellizotti attack on the final climb if he is feeling good. He has been targeting this stage as he was born and lives in the area, so knows the climb as well as anyone in the peloton.

Prediction

1. Pozzovivo
2. Nibali
3. Santambrogio
4. Scarponi
5. Betancur

Recommended Bets

Vincenzo Nibali E/W @ 10/1
Domenico Pozzovivo E/W@ 14/1
Carlos Betancur E/W @ 14/1

Analysing Garth Crooks' Team of the Week

Each week, Garth Crooks posts his 'Premier League Team of the Week' on the BBC Sport website. It is anyone guess as to how exactly he decides who should be in this team, but often many of the selections raise eyebrows. This week, we look through the 11 players that he has selected to see whether there is any justification in his selections.

Hugo Lloris



It is good to see Crooks starting with one of the more peculiar selections. The Tottenham goal was supposed 'under siege for much of their game at Stoke'. However, the statistics do not entirely back this up, with Spurs having had 25 shots compared to Stoke's 7. Indeed, Stoke only had one attempt on target in the entire match, which they scored from, meaning that Lloris did not actually make a single save during the match. With one claim from a cross and a solid pass success rate of just 27%, it is difficult to argue that Lloris was the best Premier League keeper over the weekend.

Sebastian Bassong



Crooks' claim that Bassong is Norwich's best player of the year is understandable - the Cameroonian international has been excellent and his only likely challenger would be Snodgrass. There seems to be very little that he actually argues for him being in the team this week, although he did play well and was one of the better defenders on show this weekend. Cannot argue with this selection.

Rio Ferdinand



Again, the focus here seems to be on the fact that Ferdinand has had an excellent season - a fact that cannot be disputed. However, he is not necessarily a bad shout for this team. He did score the dramatic late winning goal and his all-round performance was solid if not excellent. While I might not have had him in my team of the week, it is not the worst selection.

Jan Vertonghen



A selection that I certainly agree with. Vertonghen was excellent, despite filling in at left-back. He made more interceptions and clearances than any other Spurs player, made the joint-most tackles, had the highest pass completion rate as well as proving a threat going forward with three shots and three crosses. No arguments about this pick.

Frank Lampard



No arguments with this pick either. Two goals from the incredible Frank Lampard to all but guarantee Chelsea will be in Europe's elite competition next season. It is amazing that there is any doubt as to whether he will be at the club next season. As well as his two goals, he made more tackles than any other Chelsea player and had the joint-most interceptions. An all-round excellent performance.

Juan Mata



Another very odd selection. As good as Mata has been this season, this was one of his poorer performances this season. Crooks talks about how it was his "ingenuity that prized open the Villa defence", seemingly being oblivious to the fact that it was Eden Hazard that was the key player, and that Mata was not involved in the move at all. He may have "created three chances against Aston Villa", but he was outshone by Hazard, who created four chances, had more successful dribbles and collected two assists.

Callum McManaman



The most ridiculous choice of all, given Crooks advertises it as a 'Premier League Team of the Week'. While Callum McManaman was quite excellent in the FA Cup final, it was not a performance that should be eligible for this team at all.

Kevin Mirallas



Another pick that I can have no arguments with. Kevin Mirallas scored both goals and put in an excellent all-round performance. He had six shots, created six chances for his teammates, put plenty of excellent crosses into the area and rarely gave the ball away. Deserves his place in this team.

Clint Dempsey



A goal and an assist from Clint Dempsey helped Spurs and it is tough to argue his place in the team. He created three chances for teammates and generally battled well against a tough Stoke defensive line.

Daniel Sturridge



A sparkling hat-trick from Daniel Sturridge means that there can be no doubt that he should be the first name in the team this week. Three goals from five shots on target, he also created three chances for teammates and successfully dribbled with the ball more often than any other Liverpool player. A performance of the highest quality.

Emmanuel Adebayor



While Adebayor scored the winning goal, he did not really have a particularly great all-round performance. The goal was the only shot on target, which is disappointing given he was playing as the main striker, he did not create a single chance for his teammates and he did not win a single ball in the air. He did not have a successful dribble and was dispossessed more times than any other Spurs player. Had he not scored the goal, it would have been marked as a pretty dreadful performance.

My Team of the Week

It is easy to criticise somebody else's selections without offering suggestions of your own. Therefore, here is my selection for team of the week. I have used a 4-2-3-1 as it is generally the most commonly used formation in the league these days:

GK: Simon Mignolet
DR: Phil Bardsley
DL: Jan Vertonghen
DC: Ryan Bennett
DC: Carlos Cuellar
CM: Fabian Delph
CM: Frank Lampard
AMC: Clint Dempsey
AMC: Philippe Coutinho
AMR: Hatem Ben Arfa
ST: Daniel Sturridge

Any suggestions or criticisms of my team of the week, feel free to leave a comment in the box below....

Saturday, 11 May 2013

Giro d'Italia Stage 9 Preview

More bad luck for Wiggins hampered him in the time trial and, despite finishing second, he will be very disappointed with how the day panned out. He would fully expected to have been in the Maglia Rosa tonight, so to find himself 1m16s down on Vincenzo Nibali has put him in a difficult position.

Giro d'Italia Stage 9

The early part of this stage will see the contenders for the mountain jersey likely to take centre stage. With the first category 1 and category 2 climbs of the race, there are plenty of points at stake. As a result, it would be no surprise to see the favourites involved in a breakaway to try and grab the points. Stefano Pirazzi has been very active so far and it would be a surprise not to see him involved. At almost 8 minutes down in the GC, the leaders will have no problem letting him go away up the road to begin with, but they would likely chase down the break eventually unless he drops back.

Vini Fantini will be desperate to get someone in the break having missed it a couple of days ago. Fabio Taborre is the logical contender to get into the break and he has been very active thus far, so I would expect him to try and find his way into the breakaway. They are also covered if the breakaway is caught as Danilo Di Luca has attempted to solo his way away from the peloton twice already, and it would be no surprise if he attempts this again.

Miguel Angel Rubiano
Stage 9 would appear to suit Miguel Angel Rubiano, who won a
stage in last year's Giro

Another team that will look to put someone in the break is Androni. I have already mentioned him in a previous preview, but Miguel Angel Rubiano Chavez is a prime candidate for this type of stage. He has won stages like this in the past and will hope to do it again.

Giovanni Visconti is another obvious candidate for the break. He is targeting the mountains classification and is far enough down in the GC not to be a major worry. If he is unable to, the other option for Movistar would be Eros Capecchi, who has struggled so far, but will be hoping to make an impact soon.

If the three Italian teams - Androni, Bardiani and Vini Fantini - all manage to get a rider into the breakaway, there is a decent chance that it might make it all the way. There would be very few teams that would be overly bothered about chasing it down, so this is the main focus of our bets for this stage.

If the break is brought back, the final climb is perfect for an attack from someone looking for a solo win. This would be where the likes of Danilo Di Luca, Matteo Rabottini or Giovanni Visconti were he to miss the break.

However, with the likes of Wiggins and, particularly, Hesjedal having lost out in the time trial, there is a chance that they may look to attack the other GC contenders. In this situation, there is every chance that they could catch the break, so it is worth covering ourselves. Enrico Battaglin is the one to look at, given how well he has climbed so far and he is clearly the quickest man in the leading group right now.

Recommended Bets

Enrico Battaglin @ 14/1
Giovanni Visconti E/W @ 14/1
Miguel Angel Rubiano Chavez E/W @ 18/1
Fabio Taborre E/W @ 50/1